Trade Routes, Antimony and Ambition: Why Trump Wants Greenland at Any Cost

(Analysis) In March 2025, Donald Trump, reinstated as U.S. president, has trained his sights on Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory of 56,000, with a provocative refusal to rule out military force.

This is no fleeting fixation; it’s a calculated thrust to secure America’s dominance in a thawing Arctic, where new trade routes, critical minerals like antimony, and rivalries with Russia and China are redrawing the global order.

Trump views alliances as partnerships that demand significant U.S. resources, believing their dependence reduces American capacity. This perspective fuels his bold pursuit of Greenland, a key asset in a broader strategic competition.

The Arctic is unraveling. It has warmed four times faster than the global average over 40 years, losing 270 billion metric tons of ice annually. By 2050, ice-free summers loom, unlocking trade corridors poised to disrupt economic alignments.

Russia’s Northern Sea Route, a 5,300-kilometer lifeline from the Bering Strait to Murmansk, shifted 37.9 million tons of cargo in 2023, shaving 4,200 kilometers off Asia-Europe hauls via Suez.

Moscow and Beijing, bound by a 2022 accord, project 150 million tons by 2030—a 300% surge in five years. The Northwest Passage, threading 5,700 kilometers through Canada, Greenland, and U.S. waters, trims 4,000 kilometers off Panama Canal routes.

Greenland’s vantage at the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) gap—a 1,500-kilometer chokehold—offers mastery over these arteries and Russian naval threats.

Russia has fortified its Arctic grip since 2005, erecting 22 bases with 475 operational facilities—airfields, radar—and dormant sites primed for future conflict.

Its fleet of eight nuclear-powered and 33 diesel icebreakers, dwarfing America’s two, sustains year-round presence, though their military role is secondary.

U.S. officials dread a Russo-Chinese axis: Chinese J-20s on Russia’s Tiksi or Nagurskoye runways could swamp defenses across 4 million square kilometers. Joint naval forays near Alaska in September 2024 amplify this risk.

Trump’s riposte? Fortify Greenland—expand Pituffik Space Base’s missile radar and space-monitoring systems (tracking satellites, debris)—and seed northern airfields for P-8 Poseidon sub-hunters.

Antimony is the deeper stakes. This metalloid, hardening munitions and powering infrared sensors and batteries, is a military and energy cornerstone. The U.S. uses 22,000 metric tons yearly but mines none since 1997.

In WWII, it fueled 90% of America’s supply, hastening victory. Now, China holds 56% of global output—48,000 tons in 2023—with Russia and Tajikistan trailing. Beijing’s September 2024 export ban spiked prices to $47,500 per ton, a 200% jump.

Greenland’s subsurface boasts 1.5 million tons of antimony among 43 of 50 critical minerals—20% of Earth’s untapped reserves —a counterweight to China’s 90% rare-earth chokehold.

Canada clouds the board. It claims the Northwest Passage as sovereign waters, codified in 1985, ousting foreign ships and uprooting Inuit.

The U.S., citing the 1982 UN Law of the Sea, insists it’s an international strait, proven by the 2019 USS Gravely transit. Ottawa’s $1.2 billion Arctic defense budget signals reluctance.

Denmark, too, falters: its $2 billion Arctic pledge (drones, frigates) within a $26 billion plan, unveiled January 2025, can’t secure Greenland’s roadless, inaccessible expanse—its $2 billion GDP leans on fishing.

Trump considers certain NATO members less committed, hesitant to share the alliance’s financial burden, which he views as minor compared to the consequences of withdrawing support.

This echoes history. In 1940, after Denmark fell to Nazi Germany, the U.S. built Greenland’s military outposts; post-war, it became America’s Arctic security hub. Trump’s vision—take, not ask—revives 19th-century might.

Truman’s 1946 $100 million offer and Trump’s 2019 bid failed; now, he spurns diplomacy, fraying NATO. Greenlanders, 67% favoring independence by 2030, resist—Prime Minister Múte Egede vowed on February 28, 2025, “Our future isn’t America’s to buy”.

Denmark, stung after joining U.S. wars, spying on Europe, and buying American arms, recalls forced contraception on Inuit in the 1960s-70s, fueling Greenland’s defiance.

This is the Arctic’s new dawn: an ice-free, mineral-laden frontier where antimony could sway wars and trade routes recast empires.

Trump’s brazen play may lock in U.S. primacy, but it alienates allies—Denmark’s scars and Canada’s hesitance—and emboldens Russia and China, who relish NATO’s cracks. Greenland’s choice will test if might still trumps right in a multipolar age.