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Ecuador’s presidential runoff on April 13, 2025, has turned into a battle for Indigenous support, with Leonidas Iza, the country’s most influential Indigenous leader, poised to play kingmaker.
Iza, who leads the powerful Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE), has hinted at backing socialist candidate Luisa González. This could tip the scales in a race where González and pro-market incumbent Daniel Noboa are neck and neck after the first round.
Noboa secured 44.17% of the votes, while González was just behind at 43.97%. Iza’s Pachakutik party captured 5.24% of the first-round vote, translating to over 538,000 ballots.
While not a majority, this bloc holds significant sway in Ecuador’s fragmented political landscape. Historically, Indigenous movements have shaped national politics through mass protests against austerity and extractivism, paralyzing the country in 2019 and 2022.
Now, Iza’s potential endorsement of González could rally Indigenous voters behind her campaign while amplifying demands for environmental protection and social justice.
Ecuador’s Political Crossroads
The stakes go beyond politics. Noboa, a 37-year-old conservative president and heir to a banana empire, backs mining and oil projects that threaten Ecuador’s Amazonian biodiversity—policies Indigenous communities fiercely oppose.
González, tied to former President Rafael Correa’s leftist movement, offers an alternative but faces skepticism due to her party’s history of supporting extractivist policies.
Financial markets have reacted nervously to the uncertainty. After the first round, Ecuador’s bonds initially rose but later lost ground as investors recalculated González’s growing chances.
A shift away from Noboa’s pro-business stance could unsettle market-friendly sectors further. Iza’s decision will likely shape Ecuador’s future beyond this election. His opposition to extractivism and demand for Indigenous sovereignty reflect deeper tensions.
These tensions highlight how the nation balances economic growth with environmental and social priorities. His influence could determine not just who wins but what kind of policies define Ecuador in the years ahead.
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