Hello All,
Cathay Pacific announced yesterday a return to profits. The carrier also announced that it would take much longer than previously envisioned to place an order to renew its intra-Asia single-aisle fleet of 43 A330-300s and 17 777-300s. This blog outlined it was one of the possible orders for this year. A presentation outlined that deliveries would happen in 2028 at the earliest.
Why is the carrier taking such a long time?
Full production lines
Previous posts on this blog showed that Boeing’s and Airbus’ twin-aisle production lines will be full for a long time: 787, 777, and A350 until the late 2020s. The recent Boeing production woes won’t improve the matter. The only program with near-term delivery slots is the A330neo, in late 2026 or early 2027.
Cathay Pacific thinks taking delivery of A321neos and letting its A330-300 and 777-300 fleets age is acceptable until the end of the decade when there will be more delivery slots.
Cathay Pacific confirmed in its earnings release that it would take 777-9s starting in 2025 (or 2026 if the certification is delayed). Some of its aging 777-300ERs will likely replace older 777-300s on intra-Asia routes.
The fact Cathay is taking its time also likely means it does not envision ordering the A330neo.
Uncertain demand and digesting the new runway
Cathay Pacific returned to profits last year. It was largely a result of a post-Covid lockdown travel catch-up. Demand patterns changed, with less intercontinental business travel from other major financial hubs. The Hong Kong carrier still needs to see how demand will stabilize post-Covid and how increasing geopolitical tensions affect demand.
The third runway will also allow more operations, which could increase the number of single-aisle aircraft operated.
Conclusion
A combination of no near-term twin-aisle delivery slots and uncertain demand patterns mean that Cathay will take its time to renew its A330-300 and 777-300 intra-Asia fleet.
