Which airlines would be most impacted by a delayed or shelved A220-500? – EPSILON AVIATION

Hello All,

Airbus is working on completing the certification of the A321XLR and A350F, while Boeing is busy with the certification of the remaining 737 MAX variants and 777X. Combined with struggles to ramp up production, the prospect of a clean-sheet aircraft launch in the near term is grim.

The only model that could realistically be launched within a few years is the A220-500, an A220 stretch that has been on the drawing board for a long time. However, production challenges on the A220 have had some industry executives (Air Lease Corporation’s senior management) questioning the suitability of launching the variant soon.

This blog agrees that Airbus first needs the certainty it will profitably reach an A220 production rate of 14 per month before launching the A220-500. The conditions are not here yet. It means that the A220-500 might not be launched for a few years, potentially delaying entry into service to the early 2030s. If Airbus struggles with the A220 and does not see a profitability path, the variant might never launch.

In this context, which airlines would be worst affected by a delayed or shelved A220-500?

Only three badly impacted customers

The below table lists the nine airlines operating at least 10 A220s:

The table above also highlights whether the carriers have ordered or operated A320neos or 737 MAXes. Airlines that ordered such families can order the 737-8 or A320neo variants to make up for a lack of A220-500 in their fleets.

This leaves us with three major impacted carriers: AirBaltic, Air France, and Breeze Airways. AirBaltic and Breeze would suffer the most because they are not part of wider airline groups and have single-family operations: it would prevent them from up-gauging to a larger (and potentially more profitable) variant.

Air France operates A320ceos and A321ceos, so it needs an aircraft larger than the A220-300 in its single-aisle fleet. As part of the Air France-KLM group, the French flag carrier could alter its long-term fleet plans.

It could transfer the A220s to Air France Hop and KLM Cityhopper. It means the regional arms within the Air France KLM Group would need to ditch their Embraer fleets, including the E-Jet E2s at KLM Cityhopper. While not ideal, all those aircraft are either aging or on operating lease, so the cost is not that drastic. Air France would then order A320neos and A321neos to replace the A220s and A320ceos.

Conclusion

While delaying or shelving the A220-500 would disappoint many aviation geeks, it would only have a major impact on three airlines. Combined with its dominant single-aisle market share, this is why Airbus can afford to wait for the right time to launch the stretched A220 variant and sort out its production ramp-up and profitability issues first.