Istanbul Mayor Headed for Re-election, in Blow to Erdogan’s Party

The mayor of Istanbul was headed for a stinging re-election victory against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his ruling party early Monday, beating back a broad campaign by the president and his government and keeping Turkey’s largest city and economic powerhouse in opposition hands.

The strong showing by Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu put him on track for his third win against Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, solidifying his status as a star in the political opposition. Many Turks see Mr. Imamoglu as a potential contender for the presidency.

Partial returns showed Mr. Imamoglu defeating the ruling party’s candidate, Murat Kurum by a substantial margin. With 96 percent of ballot boxes counted, Mr. Imamoglu had won 50 percent, with Mr. Kurum getting 40 percent, according to preliminary results from the state-run Anadolu news agency.

The opposition was also on the verge of significant gains in other local elections across Turkey. Preliminary vote counts on Monday kept it in power in four of the country’s largest cities — Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir and Antalya — and gave it control of a fifth, Bursa, and a number of smaller cities.

By early Monday, more than than 90 percent of ballots boxes had been counted in most districts. Official results are expected from the Supreme Election Council in the coming days.

“Istanbul has given its message, Istanbul has finished this job,” Mr. Imamoglu told supporters gathered outside city hall early Monday. “Tomorrow morning we will turn a new page.”

Mr. Erdogan stopped short of conceding defeat in any specific races while addressing his own supporters outside his party’s headquarters in Ankara, the capital, but acknowledged that his party had not done well.

“The ballot boxes are closed, the nation has had its final say,” he said. “We will examine the reasons for this setback.”

While Turks voted for mayors and other municipal officials across Turkey on Sunday, much of the focus was on Istanbul, given its size and its political and economic importance.

“This election will determine the nature of the political race in Turkey for the years to come,” said Sinan Ulgen, the director of Edam, an Istanbul-based research organization.

A victory for Mr. Imamoglu could reinvigorate the anti-Erdogan opposition and propel the mayor toward the next presidential election, expected in 2028, when he could face off against Mr. Erdogan.

The vote came amid a prolonged cost-of-living crisis, during which the value of Turkey’s currency has sunk and many people have come to feel poorer. It also followed presidential and parliamentary elections in May that granted Mr. Erdogan another term, dashing the hopes of a coalition of opposition parties that had joined forces to try to unseat him.

In that election, Mr. Erdogan secured victory despite widespread voter anger at inflation that had soared to more than 80 percent and criticism that his government had failed to swiftly respond to powerful earthquakes that killed more than 53,000 people in southern Turkey in February 2023.

The opposition’s loss battered its morale and its coalition fell apart. But many opposition voters now see Mr. Imamoglu as uniquely capable of winning against Mr. Erdogan’s party, so much so that they predict he could be Turkey’s next president.

Home to some 16 million people and straddling the Bosporus between Europe and Asia, Istanbul generates much of Turkey’s economic output. The metropolitan municipality has about 90,000 employees, many working for municipal companies whose directors the mayor nominates. All of that gives the mayor and his allies significant opportunities to reward supporters with municipal jobs and contracts.

The race was also personal.

Mr. Erdogan, 70, grew up in Istanbul, where his father worked as a ferryboat captain. His political career leaped forward when he won an upset victory to become the city’s mayor from 1994 to 1998. Many residents hailed him for practical governance that focused on quality-of-life issues in the ancient city: cleaning up polluted streets and waterways and expanding running water and sewer networks.

While he ascended to serve as prime minister and president, jobs technically based in Ankara, the capital, Mr. Erdogan often speaks of his love for Istanbul, whose rich history, cosmopolitan elite and booming tourist sector have long made it the jewel of Turkey.

Mr. Erdogan’s party maintained control of the city for most of the 25 years after he was elected there.

That is why it was such a blow to Mr. Erdogan’s party when Mr. Imamoglu, 52, defeated its candidate in 2019. Mr. Erdogan’s party alleged electoral irregularities, and Turkey’s election board ordered a rerun.

Mr. Imamoglu won that, too, by an even greater margin.

To try to take the city back, Mr. Erdogan threw his weight behind Mr. Kurum, a former urban and environment minister in the Erdogan government and a current lawmaker in his party.

Mr. Kurum, 47, marketed himself as a hands-on technocrat who would expand services and transform Istanbul’s neighborhoods to protect residents from earthquakes, a major concern in a city that seismologists warn could be hit by a big one soon that could potentially damage hundreds of thousands of structures.

At a large campaign rally last Sunday, Mr. Erdogan delivered a long speech in which he accused Mr. Imamoglu of using the city to seek higher office.

“Istanbul is at a crossroads,” he said. “On one hand, there are those who only say ‘me.’ On the other, there are those who say ‘only Istanbul.’”

A number of people who had come for the rally spoke at length of their love for Mr. Erdogan and how he has run the country, without mentioning Mr. Kurum.

“We are here to support Erdogan,” said Erkan Kirici, 49, a laborer in a clothing factory. “He develops our country, and we want the country to move forward.”

At a separate, smaller rally days later, Mr. Imamoglu addressed people in the street from atop his campaign bus, taking about wastewater disposal, parking, free transit cards and milk for low-income families.

He characterized himself as an underdog, noting that not only Mr. Erdogan but also several ministers in his government had appeared in Istanbul to support Mr. Kurum.

“They allegedly want to take Istanbul back,” he said. “From whom? From the nation itself! The subways done by you or the subways done by me — they are all property of the nation. They think the positions, the posts they’ve been elected to, are their own property.”

In the crowd, Suna Hisman, 40, and her sister cheered at the mayor’s quips and waved Turkish flags.

“We love him,” she said. “We support him. And God willing he will be our president.”

Turkey’s next national election is expected at the end of Mr. Erdogan’s mandate in 2028, but some Turks expect that he will seek to remain in power longer. He is currently in the second of the two presidential terms allowed by the Constitution. But a parliamentary call for early elections could allow him to run for another term, or he could seek to change the Constitution.

Mr. Erdogan’s critics accuse him of eroding Turkey’s democracy by using the government to silence dissidents, co-opt the judiciary and cow the news media.

Mr. Erdogan and his supporters reject the idea that he is an aspiring autocrat, pointing to his and his party’s long record of success at the polls.

Gulsin Harman contributed reporting.