The 777X is Boeing’s new flagship aircraft. While the jet was initially supposed to enter commercial service in 2020, that timeline has been pushed back considerably, and officially the plane is now supposed to enter service as of 2025.
That’s right around the corner, so I wanted to talk about that timeline a bit more in this post — could we actually see this plane enter service next year? Or is that a best case scenario, and largely unrealistic?
The basics of the Boeing 777X
For those not familiar, the Boeing 777X is Boeing’s newest version of the 777. It will come in two variants — the 777-8 and 777-9 — and the planes are more fuel efficient, longer range, and larger than existing 777s (and larger than 787s, which are also popular).
With there clearly not being a market anymore for planes like the A380 and 747-8, this will likely be the biggest new aircraft we see manufactured in the next decade.
There are currently over 450 orders for the 777X, so the plane is popular, though not as popular as the A350 or 787, which are lower capacity while still being longe range and fuel efficient. Emirates is the single biggest customer for the 777X, as the airline has 205 of these jets on order, and is using these to replace Airbus A380s, as those jets retire.
However, airlines like All Nippon Airways, British Airways, Cathay Pacific, Qatar Airways, and Singapore Airlines, are also counting on this jet for fleet renewal, all with plans to make this their flagship aircraft.
The Boeing 777X is delayed until at least 2025
For some background, the Boeing 777X was initially supposed to enter service in 2020, but that timeline has been pushed back until at least 2025. What happened, exactly?
The plane has been delayed for a variety of reasons, ranging from production issues, to engine issues, to certification issues, to the pandemic.
Going back several years, the Boeing 777X was supposed to complete its first test flight in mid-2019, but that ended up being pushed back to early 2020. This delay was due to issues with the GE9X General Electric engines on the plane. These are the largest engines ever on a commercial plane, though they were having durability problems, causing a delay in certification.
That wasn’t the only issue, though — during the 777X certification process, a door also blew off during a stress test (hopefully not due to missing bolts!). But that was only the start of the issues. Then Boeing had its first round of issues with the 737 MAX, when two of the jets had fatal crashes. That doesn’t even account for the latest issues with Boeing’s production quality, which has caused most of the company’s senior leadership to be fired.
Officially, Boeing is currently targeting 2025 both for the jet being certified, and for the aircraft entering service. Here’s what I’m curious about, and this is beyond my area of expertise — do we have any reason to believe that this timeline is at all realistic, and will stick?
- Boeing is obviously under increased scrutiny from the government (even more so than when the company claimed the 2025 entry into service timeline for the 777X), which is delaying just about everything at Boeing significantly
- Boeing is struggling to get new variants of the Boeing 737 MAX certified (the 737 MAX 7 and 737 MAX 10), as some changes are required to these jets; the 777X also has major updates compared to the previous generation 777, and I can’t help but wonder if everything has been ironed out there, given Boeing’s management team
- Boeing is even struggling to delivery its 787s reliably due to a variety of factors, even though that jet has been in service for well over a decade now
So I know officially Boeing is still claiming that the 777X should enter service in 2025, but do we have any reason to believe that’s actually the case? For example, Emirates President Tim Clark is one of the brightest guys in the industry, and in recent weeks he has said that he thinks “the 777X is probably at the back end of next year and maybe 2026, if we’re unlucky.”
One of the things that I respect so much about Clark is that he’s one of the biggest realists in the industry. So is an early 2026 timeline for the 777X really unlucky, or is that best case scenario at this point? I can’t help but wonder if that’s really what Clark thinks, or if that’s what he’s trying to tell himself?
I don’t know the answer here, but I think it’s worth a discussion. We only have Boeing’s word regarding a delivery timeline, and Boeing has proven to not be terribly reliable. 😉
Why the 777X delay matters for passengers
It’s not just airlines that should care about Boeing 777X delivery delays, but passengers should as well. Delivery delays with the 777X have greatly messed up fleet planning at many airlines. Airlines order planes with specific strategies in mind, and a delay of five or more years sure messes things up.
Several airlines intend to use the Boeing 777X as their new flagship aircraft, and will introduce new cabins on these planes. In some cases they’ve even had to change their plans. For example:
Bottom line
The 777X is Boeing’s new flagship wide body aircraft. While the plane was supposed to enter service in 2020, that timeline has been pushed back by several years, to 2025 at the earliest. Boeing has faced a variety of issues, from engine and testing problems, to generally more stringent certification guidelines from the FAA.
We’ve heard Boeing tout the 2025 timeline for entering service for a couple of years, and I can’t help but wonder if that’s still realistic, given how the situation at Boeing has gotten even worse. Do we have any reason to believe that this plane will actually enter service in 2025, or is that just what’s being said since no one actually knows?
When do you think the Boeing 777X will actually enter service?
