ONE OF OUR covers this week features the lethal drones changing the nature of war as they swarm over the killing fields in Ukraine. The other is on how Xi Jinping, China’s president, has lost the trust of investors—and how he will struggle to win it back.
In our European editions our reporting describes how first-person view (FPV) drones are proliferating along the Russian and Ukrainian lines. The descendants of racing quadcopters, built from off-the-shelf components, these drones can slip into tank turrets or dugouts. They can loiter before going for the kill. In one week last autumn Ukrainian drones helped destroy 75 Russian tanks, 101 big guns and much else besides.
This is the first time in the history of warfare that precision weapons have been so cheap and abundant. America’s GPS-guided artillery shells cost $100,000 a time. Drones can cost as little as several hundred dollars. In 2024 Ukraine is on track to build 1m-2m of them. Astonishingly, that will match Ukraine’s consumption of shells.
From the start, we collected photographs of drones to show an unfamiliar weapon at work, even as we thought up designs to convey their menace. We began with a picture of a Ukrainian soldier launching his drone through the bare branches of a tree. Beside it, you can see how the X-shaped arms of a quadcopter could become part of a skull and crossbones.
The drone is not a wonder weapon—no such thing exists. But the sinister threat conveyed by another image, of a skull-shaped drone, is more than justified. As drones multiply and incorporate artificial intelligence, self-co-ordinating swarms will become possible. Humans will struggle to monitor and understand their engagements, let alone authorise them.
In Ukraine this evolution is already under way. The use of FPV drones there is limited by the supply of skilled pilots and by the effects of jamming, which can sever the connection between a drone and its operator. To overcome these problems, Russia and Ukraine are experimenting with autonomous navigation and target recognition. Never before have cheap microchips and software put intelligence inside millions of low-end munitions saturating the battlefield.
This bodged-together contraption on our cover hardly looks like the future of warfare. But that is the point. Drones’ revolutionary secret is that they owe their existence to widely available consumer technology. They will improve not with the bureaucratic deliberation of the military-industrial complex, but at the urgent, break-things pace of consumer electronics, which adds new capabilities with each product cycle.
This is on view not only in Ukraine but also in Myanmar, where rebels have routed government forces in recent days and volunteers in small workshops use 3D printers to make components and assemble airframes. Unfortunately, criminal groups and terrorists are unlikely to be far behind.
We thought we could get across this new threat with an allusion in our title to the ubiquitous Kalashnikov, weapon of choice for guerrillas and grunts alike. Unfortunately, our drone-aware younger colleagues didn’t know what a Kalashnikov was. That’s progress for you.
Leader: Killer drones pioneered in Ukraine are the weapons of the future
Science and technology: How cheap drones are transforming warfare in Ukraine
In our American and Asian editions we looked at China’s markets. The value of China’s and Hong Kong’s equities is down by nearly $7trn since its peak in 2021—a fall of around 35%, even as that of America’s stocks has risen by 14%, and India’s by 60%.
It is a striking contrast with earlier years, when foreign investors were clamouring to be a part of the most exciting economic story in history. At the time, investors abroad and at home believed that the skilful and determined management of China’s government put frivolous Western policymakers to shame. Today, this trust has drained away, with severe consequences for China’s economic growth.
As our cover date, February 10th, marks the beginning of the Year of the Dragon, our thoughts drifted towards flying lizards crashing to Earth. We thought of a dragon-spiral, as bad policy undermined confidence, which provoked worse policy from a government that has lost its touch. We also thought of a dragon abstracted into the stockmarket’s downward trajectory, with Mr Xi clinging on for dear life. And yet, far from being carried along, Mr Xi is driving investors away—by, for example, cracking down on criticism of the economy and putting data beyond foreigners’ reach.
The loss of trust is the culmination of something, rather than the beginning. Mr Xi’s skittish policymaking was on display as early as 2020, when he clamped down on consumer tech. That led us to think about a cover that alluded to our earlier reporting on China. A cover from last summer showed a flatlining dragon; an attempt for this week’s edition showed one crashing.
We thought we could look further back. We found a cover of the forlorn president supporting the market that dated all the way to 2015. Using it as inspiration, we had him wrapped up in the falling price, which has crashed through the floor. That was a bit much. As is the way, the markets were rallying by the time we published our leader—though such small gains make little dent in the losses over the years. We also thought that Mr Xi with his arms by his side was passive. That would have been misleading. The real reason investors have fallen out of love with China is Mr Xi’s iron belief that he and the Communist Party must be in total control.
Leaders: Can Xi Jinping win back the markets?
Briefing: China’s well-to-do are under assault from every side
China: As China’s markets crash, its consumers cower
