GM Ian Nepomniachtchi said reigning world champion GM Ding Liren would be a “massive favorite” in the upcoming title match against GM Gukesh Dommaraju if he can recover his 2019 form, while GM Fabiano Caruana thinks one good result can make a huge difference.
Nepomniachtchi appeared in a new episode of Caruana and GM Cristian Chirila‘s podcast C-Squared, released on YouTube and Spotify this week. The two-time world championship challenger shared more than 90 minutes of insight about his Candidates’ performance, Ding’s form, Gukesh, and the upcoming world championship match.
The golden ticket went to Gukesh, who will face the reigning world champion Ding in a match scheduled for November 20 – December 15. Nepomniachtchi, who missed his chance for a third title match despite an impressive undefeated Candidates run, remains uncertain on who he favors to win the match.
“Ding in his prime would be a massive favorite. I would say like 75-25. I never know if he would recover from what’s happening. Even during the match [in 2023], I think it was a glimpse of the previous Ding. Of course he played much better compared to this year, but it was far from his peak,” Nepomniachtchi said.
Ding in his prime would be a massive favorite. I would say like 75-25. I never know if he would recover from what’s happening.
—Nepomniachtchi on Ding vs. Gukesh
The reigning world champion has been under scrutiny from the chess world since winning the title due to his low activity level and poor results. Ding told Chess.com that he had been struggling with illness since winning the match, but he later revealed that his problems were psychological, not physical.
“I would be happy to see the prime Ding soon enough, but so far we are going more in the direction of whether the champion will defend his title,” Nepomniachtchi said.
Ding has admitted that he has considered retirement, but assured fans that he will defend his title this year. “I would like to win more titles, more tournaments. And I will defend my world title; the fans don’t need to be worried,” he told Chess.com’s Peter Doggers.
Nevertheless, Ding’s return to classical chess after an eight-month break this January, wasn’t a successful one. The world champion finished the Tata Steel Chess Masters in 9th place with 6/13. His slump continued with an even worse result in the Freestyle Chess G.O.A.T Challenge in February, where he didn’t win once, losing 10 out of 13 games, and finishing last.
In his most recent event, the GRENKE Chess Classic, the 31-year-old avoided last place when he won the playoff for fifth place.
Carlsen recently suggested that Ding may be “permanently broken” and never return to his peak level from 2019, when he was the world number two. He has since dropped 50 rating points to seventh in the world.
“I think there is a chance that he is not going to come back to the same level that he was at his peak around 2018-2019. And I think taking time off has done him some good after the world championship match, but it clearly hasn’t been enough quite yet,” Carlsen said.
Caruana, who himself went through a grueling world championship match in 2018, weighed in.
“We can only speculate about Ding as a person, but it very much depends on his mood or his form. Of course he is capable. Although it’s been five years since he really showed his best level, he is certainly capable of playing really strong,” Caruana said.
The current world number two pointed out everything that went in Ding’s favor back then, such as qualifying for the world championship match by finishing second in the Candidates, when Carlsen abdicated his title. His spot in the 2022 Candidates was only secured when he replaced GM Sergey Karjakin, who was banned by FIDE.
“To get to the match was enormous fortune. That should make him inspired, but then instead we see kind of the opposite. Instead of some inspiration, we see a lack of any motivation or something.”
To get to the match was enormous fortune. That should make him inspired, but then instead we see kind of the opposite. Instead of some inspiration, we see a lack of any motivation or something.
—Caruana on Ding
Caruana noted that while Ding withdrew from several scheduled tournaments last year, he is now back to playing actively again.
“The trend now is that he is playing—maybe not successfully, but at least he seems to be willing to go there. Of course some losses are very painful, but if he simply has one decent result, some wins and losses, I think life will start to look a bit brighter in terms of chess for him. He might remember that he can play very well, which I am hoping.”
Nepomniachtchi acknowledged that a match prediction is hard at the moment, but he pointed out Ding’s perfect classical score against Gukesh after convincingly winning two games with Black in Wijk aan Zee.
“Kids grow very fast, but I don’t see anything special in Gukesh’s play. It’s very strong, but it’s not bright. It’s hard for me to bet on him, but at the same time it’s more like betting against Ding than betting on someone else,” he said.
Kids grow very fast, but I don’t see anything special in Gukesh’s play. It’s very strong, but it’s not bright. It’s hard for me to bet on him, but at the same time it’s more like betting against Ding than betting on someone else.
—Nepomniachtchi on Gukesh
While he doesn’t see anything special in Gukesh, the Russian also used the opportunity to praise the 17-year-old.
“I have never seen a player who had so much control throughout the tournament. He never had a losing position. Not even a losing position, in these 14 games he never had a worse position throughout the 14 rounds.”
While Gukesh is currently in action in the ongoing Superbet Rapid & Blitz Poland, Ding will return to classical chess in Norway Chess which begins in Stavanger on May 27.
