Putzger perspective: Cargo demand flies but can aviation keep up?
Aircraft supply chains are struggling to meet demand from airlines and the impact is taking its toll on air cargo operations.
The aviation industry is struggling with a massive disconnect. Demand is robust. While air travel continues to surge, air cargo traffic has shown unexpected strength, with double-digit year-on-year increases in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs) and a tidal wave of e-commerce gobbling up capacity.
The supply side is mired in a tangle of problems. Aircraft production is hobbled by supply chain issues that months of efforts have not been able to resolve, one of the big two manufacturers is going at a snail’s pace (Boeing is turning out B737s and 787s at reduced rates and has not built a passenger 777 in two years), and engine makers can’t keep up with demand.
Boeing did not deliver any 777 freighters during the first quarter, despite producing six in March alone. By mid-April it had 11 777Fs at its Everett facility waiting for engines from GE.
Meanwhile, the problems with Pratt & Whitney’s GTF engine have affected dozens of airlines and leasing firms and will keep maintenance facilities busy for a long time yet.
Needless to say, maintenance providers are hobbled by a shortage of aircraft engineers. There is also a dire shortage of air traffic controllers, which prompted Airlines for America in April to ask the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to grant carriers another year of voluntary flight reductions at some of the most congested US airports.
The situation is not much better when it comes to the regulatory scene, at least as far as the FAA is concerned. Staff shortages were one reason why the regulator delegated many of the oversight functions in plane production to Boeing.
With glaring problems in the plane maker’s safety culture, the FAA now has to allocate a lot of inspectors to a thorough scrutiny of processes at Boeing. There is no doubt that the agency will be meticulous in this effort and painstakingly avoid any mistakes, lest it be accused of lax oversight.
It would be surprising if the FAA showed greater pace in the certification of new planes. Nobody is making bets at this point how long it will take for the B777X to obtain the green light for commercial operations.
How much room does this leave for staff at the FAA to advance certification of unmanned flying? Development of drone technology and unmanned planes has made good progress over the past year, but how long will it take to get clearance for these?
