Now that it’s February—figuratively the longest month of the year—college basketball fans must resist the urge to hit the fast-forward button and go straight to March.
In a similar vein, there are several big-name college basketball programs that must resist the urge to look ahead to March Madness—or they just might miss out.
This affliction shall go by the name February FAFO and Jason Benetti, Robbie Hummel and any other broadcaster who work six nights a week can feel free to make this their own.
Let’s start by examining two of the sport’s all-time blue bloods: Indiana and North Carolina. Since Bob Knight showed up in Bloomington in 1971, there have only been three NCAA Tournaments when neither the Hoosiers nor the Tar Heels graced the field: 1974, 2010 and 2020. This year could easily become the fourth.
Hubert Davis’ North Carolina squad (13-9, 6-4) enters today’s road game at Duke with only one win over a highly likely NCAA Tournament qualifier—and that was a 2-point win over UCLA on Dec. 21 at Madison Square Garden.
Fifth-year guard RJ Davis, a unanimous first-team All-American last year, is not a candidate to repeat as his scoring average has dipped from 21.2 points per game to 17.6 and his 3-point stroke has gone from 39.8 percent to 30.3.
As of Saturday morning, ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi had the Tar Heels on his Last Four In list, but Hoops HQ’s Brad Wachtel did not. When it comes to Indiana, though, these experts are unified: the preseason Big Ten favorites are on the wrong side of the bubble.
The Hoosiers (14-8, 5-6) looked like they understood the assignment Friday night at No. 10 Purdue. Indiana played as well as it has all year to build a 4-point halftime lead, handled a Purdue knockout attempt in the first four minutes of the second half, and came back for more. The Hoosiers led by six with 5:30 to play and by one with 30 seconds left, yet wound up losing 81-76.
Now they’re 1-5 over their last six games—with Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State, UCLA and Purdue next on the schedule. Still lots of chances to build a Tournament-worthy resume. But, more likely, they’re going to get Mike Woodson fired.
Here’s a surprising team that can’t afford to slip up this month: Gonzaga. Doesn’t this sound weird considering the Zags haven’t missed the tournament since 1998 and they’re currently hovering around the top 10 in the NET and KenPom? These two predictive metrics suggest they’d merit 3-seed consideration if the NCAA Tournament started today.
However, Lunardi and Wachtel both have relegated the Bulldogs (16-6) to an 8 seed because they haven’t beaten any likely NCAA Tournament teams since Nov. 18—and they’ve had plenty of chances because Mark Few loaded up the non-conference schedule. However, after early wins over Baylor and San Diego State, they’ve lost to West Virginia, Kentucky, UConn and UCLA. Nothing wrong with that, necessarily, but they’ve also lost to Santa Clara and split with Oregon State.
A couple more blue bloods who need to beware the Ides of February? Kansas (15-5) and Michigan State (18-2). As you can tell by their records, both teams essentially have clinched NCAA Tournament spots, which will be the 35th straight for the Jayhawks and 27th in a row for Tom Izzo and the Spartans.
The Jayhawks were ranked No. 1 in the preseason Associated Press poll, but their pieces don’t seem to click. Kansas got upset at home by a West Virginia team playing without two starters, then doubled down on that by squandering a 6-point lead with 18 seconds left against Houston last week.
Then there’s the Spartans, who might be the feel-good story of the season. In Tom Izzo’s 30th year at the helm, he has put together a 10-man rotation that enables him to match up with every type of lineup. None of the 10 play fewer than 15 minutes per game, and nobody plays more than 26.
Despite shooting just 28.9 percent on 3-pointers this season, which ranks 348th out of 364 Div. I teams, Michigan State rides a 13-game winning streak into Saturday night’s game at USC. A Spartans win means Izzo, who turned 70 Thursday, ties Bob Knight for the most Big Ten wins in league history (353).
So what’s the problem with the Spartans? Their Big Ten schedule is incredibly backloaded.
They haven’t played Purdue. Or Maryland. Or UCLA. Or Oregon. Or Wisconsin. Illinois is the only first-division Big Ten team they’ve faced—and Michigan State eeked out a 2-point home win when stellar Illini freshman point guard Kasparas Jakucionis played less than nine minutes due to foul trouble.
“I think the road’s gonna get tougher,” Izzo told reporters after Tuesday’s win over Minnesota. “I told you it’s backloaded. I think everybody’s by now has checked the schedule and realized that I think all but one of our next 11 games, if you win (it) would be a Quad 1 win. That kind of tells you a lot, and yet I don’t want to diminish what we’ve done either because we’ve done some incredible things.”
