It’s been a strange winter, not just here in the Great Land, but all across the United States. I’m not so sure the weather has been what you’d call normal anywhere in the U.S. this winter; it’s either a deep freeze or unseasonably warm. Here, in our Susitna Valley digs, on this last Friday of January, it’s not snowing, but raining. Yes, really – it’s 41 degrees, according to our indoor-outdoor thermometer:
An unseasonably warm January will bring at least an inch of rain to almost all of Southcentral Alaska this weekend, with deep snow set to fall in the Talkeetna area.
Much of the region, including Anchorage, the Matanuska-Susitna Borough and the Kenai Peninsula, is under a flood watch from Friday morning through Monday morning.
“Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations,” National Weather Service forecasters wrote. “Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.”
A high wind watch for the Anchorage area, in effect from late Friday night through Sunday morning, calls for gusts up to 70 mph along the Anchorage Hillside and 40 to 50 mph in the Anchorage Bowl.
Next week, we’re supposed to return to normal Alaska temps for this time of year – daytime highs in single digits, lows at or below zero. But for now? Everything’s dripping, there’s water on a layer of packed snow on everything, making driving and even walking tricky. And here’s the really odd part: New Orleans, since December 1st, has had more snow than Anchorage. Yes, really.
New Orleans, LA has received more than double the amount of snowfall we’ve received here in Anchorage, AK since the start of meteorological winter (Dec. 1). New Orleans: 8.0″
Anchorage: 3.8″@NWSNewOrleans, we’d like our snow back. Or at least some King Cake in return. 😉🙃— NWS Anchorage (@NWSAnchorage) January 22, 2025
Here’s the thing: It’s all part of the same system.
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Yes, that’s right. The same polar vortex that is pushing Arctic air down across most of the lower 48 is, on the other side, dragging warm, wet Pacific air up over south-central Alaska. Farther north, they’re expecting six to eight inches of snow in the next couple of days, from Talkeetna to Cantwell. But here? Rain.
Frankly, we’d rather have snow. We’re used to it. We expect it. Snow, at least at normal Alaska temperatures, isn’t as slick as ice with a layer of water over it. But while most years, by the end of January we expect to have snow measured in feet, now we have six or seven inches, and standing water in every low spot. NWS Anchorage is issuing flood warnings.
❗⚠A Flood Watch is in effect for much of Southcentral as an atmospheric river brings prolonged rainfall. Due to wintertime conditions, there is significant concern for flooding along waterways as well as in low-lying and poor drainage areas (1/2) #AKwx pic.twitter.com/y7bXmWn6va
— NWS Anchorage (@NWSAnchorage) January 23, 2025
Here, folks, is the climate in action. It’s big, chaotic, and unpredictable, as I’ve been saying and writing for years. This polar vortex, which even the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) admits can’t be written off as “climate change,” wasn’t something we expected. It wasn’t predicted last summer or last fall. It’s happened before, and it will happen again. But just as your local TV weatherman can’t make a 100 percent record in predicting the weather more than a few days in advance, so can nobody predict what the continental weather systems, or the climate, will do three months hence.
So, yes, we’re having a strangely wet and warm winter in Alaska – so far. Most of us up here are waiting for the next shoe to drop and wondering what February and March will be like.
Meanwhile, most of you in the lower 48 are shivering, and slogging through snow that many cities and states aren’t prepared for.
As the saying goes, this too shall pass. It’s pretty typical, after all, for weather, which everyone complains about, but nobody does anything about it.
