As President Donald Trump mandated a return to office for nearly all federal employees, there could be some unintended consequences—namely for commuters—as traffic is anticipated to skyrocket in the nation’s capital and beyond.
Why It Matters
Pre-pandemic, many metropolitan areas faced far higher rates of traffic than in 2020 and afterward due to lingering remote work policies.
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What To Know
Trump on Monday directed all federal agencies to “take all necessary steps to terminate remote work arrangements,” handing them a 5 p.m. Friday deadline to update their telework policies to follow the new mandate. The full order is supposed to go into effect within a month.
While 26 percent of federal employees are unionized, the rest would likely be forced to return to the office without the option for remote work immediately. Unionized workers have been protected by bargaining agreements that give remote work and hybrid options.
The federal agencies could also be up against a federal law requiring employers to grant “reasonable accommodations” to workers with chronic medical conditions. Some of those workers could argue that remote work is a reasonable accommodation that still allows them to perform their job effectively.
At the moment, only 6 percent of federal employees work in person, according to the White House. A different report using government data found only roughly 228,000 federal workers were fully remote, and only 46 percent, or 1.1 million, were eligible for remote work.
With 228,000 federal workers back on the road at peak commute times, traffic would likely be impacted but it may not rival the pre-pandemic era.
“I don’t believe we will ever see pre-pandemic traffic levels again, given the current work environment,” Kevin Thompson, finance expert and founder/CEO of 9i Capital Group, told Newsweek. “Many employees have shifted to four-day work weeks, and remote work has become more widespread. These changes have fundamentally altered commuting patterns.”
The March 2024 collapse of the Key Bridge, which spanned the Patapsco River in Maryland, will have a compounding effect, according to Thompson. As commuters choose alternative routes, the congestion will likely lead to further delays and more traffic accidents.
Some agencies have more remote workers than others, with the U.S. Department of Defense and Department of Veterans Affairs and the Department of Health and Human Services leading the pack.
What People Are Saying
Tesla executive Elon Musk, in charge of a Trump administration initiative to reduce government spending, wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed last year: “Requiring federal employees to come to the office five days a week would result in a wave of voluntary terminations that we welcome.”
Thompson, based in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, told Newsweek: “Some of my clients have nothing to return to, as several government buildings have been shuttered and sold. As a result, they will likely remain remote for the foreseeable future. Those being forced back into the city would negatively impact traffic patterns since many of these commuters have been off the roads for an extended period. Adding more cars to an already strained infrastructure—for example the DFW [Dallas-Fort Worth] area—would undoubtedly be a challenge.”
Alex Beene, financial literacy instructor for the University of Tennessee at Martin, told Newsweek: “Washington, D.C. usually ranks as one of the worst cities for traffic in the United States, so the return-to-office orders for federal employees both in that city and other major cities across the nation already struggling with traffic-based issues is going to cause more than a few headaches for drivers. Over time, drivers will adjust to the uptick in vehicles during prime traffic times during the day. However, in the short term, a sudden surge in employees hitting the road could trigger increased waiting times going to and from work.”
Curtis Sparrer, principal and cofounder of public relations/marketing firm Bospar, told Newsweek: “Every time a company demands RTO [return to office] we see an uptick in traffic in the affected region. But usually, businesses demand RTO incrementally and they don’t have quite the size of the Federal Government. By demanding this sudden RTO the White House is going to create sudden traffic surprises wherever there is a concentration of federal workers.”
HR consultant Bryan Driscoll told Newsweek: “I want to be clear that Trump’s mandate isn’t about productivity – it’s about control. If he gets to ‘work’ from Mar-a-Lago and golf courses, why shouldn’t federal employees have flexibility? Forcing nearly a quarter million workers back to the office is going to create a nightmare – more traffic, more accidents, more deaths, more stress, and less time with family. And it’s not just those employees who will suffer – everyone else on the road will pay the price too.”
What Happens Next
While Trump’s push for the end of remote work has been explained by some as a push for higher productivity and efficiency in government agencies, some believe he may be hoping to spark a spree of resignations. This could open up positions for workers aligned with Trump’s administration.
Under the current legal obligations, federal agencies must provide employees written notice that they are being fired at least a month in advance, whether or not they refuse the return-to-office mandate.
Employees across the country have been resisting return-to-office policies, with 67 percent saying they would pass on a promotion to continue working remotely, according to a recent poll from Glassdoor.
“This is a massive waste of time and resources. Productivity will tank as workers spend hours sitting in traffic instead of actually working,” Driscoll said. “Morale will plummet, leading to burnout and higher turnover. And let’s not forget the economic cost of lost efficiency – congested roads mean delayed deliveries, slower commutes for essential workers, and a hit to businesses relying on a smooth flow of goods and services.”
