(Analysis) Gustavo Petro entered office in 2022 as Colombia’s first leftist president, promising Paz Total—an ambitious plan inspired by Derrida’s idea of forgiving the “unforgivable.” Rather than piecemeal talks, he sought simultaneous ceasefires with all armed groups. Yet by January 2025, his dream lay in ruins.
Declaring a state of emergency, Petro deployed thousands of troops to Catatumbo, a strategic corridor near Venezuela plagued by cocaine trafficking. An ELN offensive there had killed over 80 civilians, kidnapped local leaders, and displaced more than 25,000 people.
Although Petro’s six-month ceasefire with the ELN in 2023 was meant to defuse tensions, the group’s Central Command exploited it to reorganize, allegedly operating from Venezuelan soil.
Over two years, peace talks unraveled. The ELN pursued territorial control, while FARC dissidents—splintered into factions like the Central General Staff (EMC) and the Second Marquetalia—abandoned ceasefires to expand illicit economies.
Violence spiked 85 percent, displacing 71,000 in 2024 alone and confining another 100,000 due to landmines and threats. By 2025, the Gulf Clan operated in 392 municipalities (a 55 percent increase), the ELN in 232 (up 23 percent), and FARC dissidents in 299 (up 30 percent). Child recruitment rose to 159 cases in 2024.
The toll was staggering. In Catatumbo alone, 19,800 were displaced in early 2025, 46,000 children lost access to school, and at least 138 social leaders were assassinated in 2024. Petro’s administration faced a 12 trillion peso ($3 billion) deficit, exacerbated by a 72 trillion peso ($17 billion) shortfall in 2024 tax revenues.
Forced to cut 52 trillion pesos in spending, the government diverted funds from social programs to military operations. Even Ecopetrol, Colombia’s state oil company, halted operations in Tibú, paralyzing local economies. Declaring a “state of economic emergency,” Petro gained power to bypass Congress, stoking fears of overreach.
Gustavo Petro: From “Total Peace” to State of Emergency — The Cost of a Fractured Dream
Politically, Petro’s approval ratings plummeted as conservatives, opposed to the 2016 FARC deal, capitalized on public anger. Even Senator Iván Cepeda acknowledged the ELN’s betrayal had dealt Petro’s legitimacy a “lethal blow.”
Tensions with Venezuela escalated, despite a symbolic meeting between Defense Minister Iván Velásquez and Vladimir Padrino, since Nicolás Maduro’s regime appeared unwilling to curb the ELN’s cross-border activities.
Operation Catatumbo deployed 6,000 troops, along with armor and artillery. Though 84 ELN combatants surrendered and 20 child soldiers were rescued, the offensive risked displacing violence elsewhere, giving the Gulf Clan and others more room to expand.
Petro, a former M-19 guerrilla, thus found himself waging the war he once vowed to end. Elizabeth Dickinson of Crisis Group noted the ELN’s pivot to tactical warfare under commander “Pablito,” leaving Petro to don the mantle of commander-in-chief rather than peacemaker.
With the 2026 elections looming and armed groups entrenched, Colombia stands at a crossroads. For many, the dream of Total Peace—once so full of promise—now lies buried in Catatumbo’s embattled fields.
