Brazil’s financial markets enter a new day digesting the Central Bank’s latest Selic rate hike and bracing for a packed global economic calendar.
At 8:00 AM, Brazil will release the IGP-M (General Market Price Index), a key measure of inflation in wholesale markets that can foreshadow consumer price trends.
Across Latin America, Mexico’s GDP data will reveal how one of the region’s largest economies fared in the final quarter of 2024, guiding trade and investment outlooks.
In the United States, the spotlight falls on fourth-quarter GDP, Core PCE Prices, and jobless claims at 8:30 AM. These indicators will reveal the U.S. economy’s growth momentum and inflation pressures, influencing the Federal Reserve’s future policy stance.
Pending Home Sales at 10:00 AM will offer insights into consumer confidence and the housing market’s strength. The Fed’s Balance Sheet release at 4:30 PM may shed more light on liquidity conditions and the central bank’s quantitative tightening measures.
In Europe, Germany will publish its GDP at 6:00 AM, alongside detailed fourth-quarter figures that could shape sentiment in the Eurozone’s largest economy.
The Eurozone itself will unveil its GDP (QoQ and YoY) at 5:00 AM, followed by the ECB Monetary Policy Decision at 8:30 AM and Press Conference at 8:45 AM.
These announcements will be pivotal in signaling any shift in the ECB’s tightening cycle amid ongoing inflationary pressures and concerns about growth.
Elsewhere, China, Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea remain on holiday for the Lunar New Year, which could reduce liquidity and heighten market swings in other regions.
Japan’s Tokyo Core CPI and Industrial Production data, as well as Australia’s PPI, round out a globally relevant day of economic releases. Together, these events matter for Brazil’s trade flows, currency valuation, and investor sentiment, as they shape the global appetite for risk assets and commodities on which Brazil heavily depends.
Economic Agenda for January 30, 2025
Brazil and Latin America
Brazil
- 8:00 AM – IGP-M (General Market Price Index)
Mexico
- 7:00 AM – GDP (YoY) (Q4)
- 7:00 AM – GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
- 9:00 AM – GDP
The Americas
United States
- 8:30 AM – GDP
- 8:30 AM – Continuing Jobless Claims
- 8:30 AM – Core PCE Prices (Q4)
- 8:30 AM – GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
- 8:30 AM – GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4)
- 8:30 AM – Initial Jobless Claims
- 10:00 AM – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Dec)
- 4:30 PM – Fed’s Balance Sheet
Europe
Germany
- 4:00 AM – German GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
- 4:00 AM – German GDP (YoY) (Q4)
- 6:00 AM – GDP
- 6:30 AM – German Buba President Nagel Speaks
Eurozone
- 5:00 AM – GDP (YoY) (Q4)
- 5:00 AM – GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
- 5:00 AM – Unemployment Rate (Dec)
- 7:00 AM – GDP
- 8:15 AM – Deposit Facility Rate (Jan)
- 8:15 AM – ECB Marginal Lending Facility
- 8:15 AM – ECB Monetary Policy Statement
- 8:15 AM – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jan)
- 8:30 AM – ECB Monetary Policy Decision
- 8:45 AM – ECB Press Conference
France
- 1:30 AM – French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Dec)
- 1:30 AM – French GDP (YoY) (Q4)
- 1:30 AM – French GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
Spain
- Spanish CPI (YoY) (Jan)
- Spanish HICP (YoY) (Jan)
Italy
- 5:10 AM – Italian 10-Year BTP Auction
Rest of the World
China
- All Day – Holiday: Chinese New Year
Singapore
- All Day – Holiday: Chinese New Year
Hong Kong
- All Day – Holiday: Chinese New Year
South Korea
- All Day – Holiday: Korean New Year
South Africa
- 8:00 AM – Interest Rate Decision (Jan)
Japan
- 6:30 PM – Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Jan)
- 6:50 PM – Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)
Australia
- 7:30 PM – PPI (QoQ) (Q4)
- 7:30 PM – PPI (YoY) (Q4)
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
In a session marked by heightened anticipation over the Central Bank’s decision, the Ibovespa Brazil’s main stock index pulled back to 123,432.12 points, a drop of 0.50. Investors weighed the approaching Copom Monetary Policy Committee meeting, where the Selic rate was widely expected to increase by one percentage point to 13.25, in line with previous guidance.
The U.S. dollar ended trading at R 5.8662, down 0.06, its eighth straight session of declines marking the longest losing streak for the American currency since March 2022. Market participants remained on edge due to new tariff threats from former U.S. President Donald Trump, which added another layer of uncertainty for exporters.
Domestically, cautious sentiment prevailed as traders awaited the conclusion of the year’s first monetary policy meeting under Central Bank President Gabriel Galípolo. The newly announced Selic rate of 13.25 reaffirms the bank’s commitment to reining in inflation, though concerns are growing over the impact on debt quality and economic expansion.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
Wall Street ended Wednesday on a softer note, with the S&P 500 slipping 0.5 to 6,039.31, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.3 to 44,713.52, and the Nasdaq composite off 0.5 to 19,632.32.
The Federal Reserve opted to hold its main interest rate steady, breaking a streak of rate cuts that had persisted since September. Treasury yields steadied after the announcement, suggesting that the Fed might pause further moves for the time being. The decision, however, raises questions about how inflation could evolve without additional monetary tightening.
Tech stocks remained under pressure. Nvidia continued its volatile week, weighed down by competition concerns after DeepSeek introduced new AI technologies that could challenge existing market players.
On Wednesday:
- The S&P 500 fell 28.39 points, or 0.5, to 6,039.31.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 136.83 points, or 0.3, to 44,713.52
- The Nasdaq composite fell 101.26 points, or 0.5, to 19,632.32.
- The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 5.77 points, or 0.3, to 2,283.10.
Commodity Markets
Oil Prices
Oil prices tumbled as rising U.S. stockpiles and renewed tariff threats from Donald Trump sparked fears of a potential slowdown in global demand. For Brazil, lower oil prices could mean reduced export revenues in the short term, although it may ease domestic fuel costs if the exchange rate remains stable.
Gold Prices
Gold edged higher amid lingering concerns over protectionist trade moves and the Federal Reserve’s rate pause. The precious metal’s safe-haven appeal often intensifies during periods of policy uncertainty and geopolitical tension.
Bitcoin Prices
Bitcoin held steady above 105,000, reflecting a market consensus that the Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged could sustain appetite for alternative assets. Despite recent volatility, major cryptocurrencies continue to gain institutional acceptance.
Companies and Markets
Azul’s Debt Restructuring
Debt restructuring at airline Azul has boosted investor confidence, reflecting optimism about the company’s balance sheet improvements and operational resilience in the travel sector.
Allos Launches Share Buyback
In a bid to enhance shareholder value, Allos announced a share buyback program. Such moves can signal confidence in a firm’s long-term prospects and help support stock prices.
Vale Boosts Production
Mining giant Vale reported an increase in production, influencing the steel market and offering a broader signal of industrial activity in Brazil. Its performance can have a cascading effect on related sectors and export revenues.
Porto Saúde’s Customer Growth
Porto Saúde defied industry trends by growing its customer base 24 in 2024, a notable feat in Brazil’s competitive healthcare market. Analysts see this as evidence of robust consumer demand for private health solutions.
Rising Selic Rate Sparks Debt Concerns
Brazil’s new 13.25 Selic rate has raised apprehensions regarding corporate and consumer debt quality. Higher borrowing costs might weigh on economic growth and loan default risks.
Itaú Unibanco Bets Big on AI
Itaú Unibanco advanced its Neospace investment to accelerate AI-driven solutions. This strategic move underscores the growing importance of technology in Latin America’s largest banking market.
From Digimais to Bluebank
A strategic overhaul in Brazil’s banking sector saw Digimais rebrand to Bluebank, highlighting intensified competition and innovation in digital finance offerings nationwide.
Outlook
With global growth signals poised to emerge from GDP releases in the United States, Europe, and Mexico, Brazil’s markets will closely follow any shifts in external demand for its exports.
Domestically, investors and businesses alike are adjusting to a 13.25 Selic rate, gauging potential impacts on both credit conditions and inflation.
Asian market holidays may keep volumes subdued, but unexpected developments from tariff announcements to central bank guidance could amplify volatility.
In the near term, traders will also parse upcoming domestic inflation data and corporate guidance to get a clearer read on how higher rates will shape Brazil’s economic trajectory.
As the quarter unfolds, the interplay between global monetary policy, commodity trends, and domestic fiscal priorities will remain pivotal for Brazil’s financial and investment landscape.
Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 30, 2025
