Brazil’s financial markets are poised for a pivotal day, highlighted by the much-anticipated ‘Super Wednesday.’ This term refers to the alignment of key monetary policy decisions from both the Brazilian Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve, which can significantly sway global financial markets.
Domestically, Brazil will release Foreign Exchange Flow data at 2:30 PM and the Selic Interest Rate Decision at 6:50 PM, both of which are critical for assessing investor sentiment and the direction of Brazil’s economy. The Selic rate is expected to rise by 100 basis points to 13.25%, a move that could have widespread implications on borrowing costs, inflation, and economic growth in Brazil.
Globally, the economic agenda is dominated by central bank actions. In Canada, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will release its Monetary Policy Report and Rate Statement, alongside an interest rate decision and press conference.
In the United States, the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates and policy could ripple through commodity markets, trade balances, and investor confidence worldwide, directly affecting Brazil’s export outlook and currency valuation.
In Europe, German consumer sentiment, the German 10-Year Bund Auction, and speeches from key figures like BoE Governor Bailey and ECB officials will also influence global risk sentiment.
Economic Agenda for January 29, 2025
Brazil and Latin America
- 2:30 PM – Foreign Exchange Flow (Brazil)
- 6:50 PM – Selic Interest Rate Decision (Brazil)
The Americas
Canada
- 6:00 AM – BoC Monetary Policy Report
- 6:00 AM – BoC Rate Statement
- 9:45 AM – BoC Monetary Policy Report
- 9:45 AM – BoC Rate Statement
- 9:45 AM – BoC Interest Rate Decision
- 10:30 AM – BOC Press Conference
United States
- 8:30 AM – Goods Trade Balance (Dec)
- 8:30 AM – Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Dec)
- 10:30 AM – Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)
- 10:30 AM – Crude Oil Inventories
- 10:30 AM – Cushing Crude Oil Inventories
- 2:00 PM – FOMC Statement
- 2:00 PM – Fed Interest Rate Decision
- 4:00 PM – Fed Monetary Policy Decision
- 4:30 PM – FOMC Press Conference
Europe
- 2:00 AM – GfK German Consumer Climate (Feb) (Eurozone)
- 5:30 AM – German 10-Year Bund Auction (Eurozone)
- 9:15 AM – BoE Gov Bailey Speaks (United Kingdom)
- 10:45 AM – ECB Press Conference (Eurozone)
Rest of the World
- All Day – Holiday: Chinese New Year (China)
- All Day – Holiday: Chinese New Year (Singapore)
- All Day – Holiday: Chinese New Year (Hong Kong)
- All Day – Holiday: Korean New Year (South Korea)
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The São Paulo Stock Exchange saw a decline with the Ibovespa index falling by 0.65% to 124,055.50 points. Investors are treading cautiously ahead of ‘Super Wednesday,’ which encompasses the pivotal interest rate decisions from both Brazil and the U.S. Vale, a major player in Brazil’s mining industry, saw its shares decrease by 2%, influenced by Citibank’s forecast of a potential drop in Chinese iron ore demand.
The U.S. dollar weakened against the Brazilian real, closing at R$5.8696, its lowest since November 26, 2024, reflecting market anxiety before the central banks’ announcements.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. stock indexes rebounded with the S&P 500 up by 0.9%, the Dow Jones by 0.3%, and the Nasdaq composite rallying 2%, driven by tech stocks like Nvidia. This recovery follows a volatile period questioning the sustainability of investments in AI technologies.
On Tuesday:
- The S&P 500 rose 55.42 points, or 0.9%, to 6,067.70.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 136.77 points, or 0.3%, to 44,850.35.
- The Nasdaq composite rose 391.75 points, or 2%, to 19,733.59.
Commodity Markets
Oil Prices
Oil prices edged higher due to disruptions in Libya offsetting concerns about demand from China. This could impact Brazil’s oil sector and overall economic sentiment, given its status as a significant exporter.
Gold Prices
Gold prices rose as markets reacted to Trump’s tariff threats and awaited the Federal Reserve’s decision, influencing investor moves towards safe-haven assets.
Bitcoin Prices
Bitcoin surged past $102,000, reflecting market optimism and the anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s policy direction.
Companies and Markets
Banco Safra experienced a significant capital reduction due to family disputes, potentially affecting financial stability within Brazil. Read more…
Brazil’s Tax Reform has led to unprecedented revenue from high-net-worth individuals, signaling a shift in fiscal policy that could influence market dynamics. Read more…
UBS BB highlighted underpenetrated sectors like infrastructure as key areas for investment appeal in Brazil, suggesting potential growth avenues. Read more…
Reag Investimentos made its debut on B3 with $35 billion under management, signaling confidence in Brazil’s investment landscape. Read more…
JBS expanded its protein portfolio by acquiring stakes in South America’s largest egg company, aiming to diversify its market presence. Read more…
Petrobras surpassed its production goals, bolstering its market position, which is critical for Brazil’s energy sector. Read more…
Food Inflation in Brazil ranked fifth highest among G20 economies in 2024, affecting consumer spending and potentially dampening retail sales. Read more…
Outlook
With ‘Super Wednesday’ on the horizon, today’s financial markets will be particularly sensitive to both domestic and international monetary policy signals. The Brazilian real’s movement, commodity prices, and stock market responses will hinge on these outcomes.
The holiday in Asia might reduce liquidity, potentially amplifying reactions to U.S. data and Fed decisions, while Brazil’s own rate decision will be closely watched for insights into future economic policy.
Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 29, 2025
