COP29: UN climate conference has become ‘broken’ and ‘unrealistic’

The annual climate summit has been held every year since 1995 — except 2020, due to the coronavirus pandemic — serving as a formal meeting of the U.N.’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to measure progress and coordinate multilateral responses to climate change among developed and developing countries. 

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Over the years, the conference has resulted in notable, landmark accords such as the Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement, paving the way for nations to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and pursue energy transitions toward renewable alternatives. However, the targets set within those agreements stretch further out of reach, several world leaders decided to forgo attending this year’s event, and multiple nations have pulled their negotiators just days after the summit began. As a result, many have begun to question the effectiveness of the global climate summit. 

Notably, both President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris decided not to attend COP29. It marks the second year in a row the president skipped out of the annual conference, as Harris attended in his stead last year. Instead, senior climate policy adviser John Podesta led the U.S. delegation to Baku. Other administration officials scheduled to join him include Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, and White House climate advisor Ali Zaidi. Additionally, Rep. Auguest Pfluger (R-TX) was set to lead a House Energy and Commerce Committee delegation to the conference this weekend.

President-elect Donald Trump’s win could spell further trouble for the summit. His presidential campaign said this summer he would again withdraw from the Paris Agreement and walk back several climate policies from the Biden administration. Trump’s recent win has sparked concern among many on the global stage seeking to secure strong climate finance agreements, leading U.S. officials scrambling to affirm the country’s commitment to its energy transition.

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Broken framework

It’s worth noting that concerns surrounding the climate change conference didn’t just pop up this year. For many in the industry, each year’s summit has been evidence of a lack of inaction or unrealistic expectations about taking on the climate crisis. 

“It’s been a broken process since the beginning,” Frank Masiano, a senior principal at Bracewell, told the Washington Examiner. “And, it’s led by people who are generally unrealistic about the energy reality that most of the globe faces.” 

Masiano clarified that’s not to say COP hasn’t been a good “outlet.” However, the energy and environmental expert insisted the conference has been misappropriated. He specifically criticized the emphasis put on smaller emitting, developing countries, saying they have an “outsized advantage” on the global stage COP presents. 

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“I always felt that focusing on large emitters and bringing them to table, whether they were developed or developing countries, in the grand scheme of things, was a much better approach to finding solutions and moving towards progress,” Masiano said, adding there was success through that process seen through the Copenhagen Accord and G20 talks. 

With more than 50,000 people in attendance at Baku, it may likely be the popular opinion that the current system works in some way or that there is value to meeting in person at such a scale. 

James Coleman, a professor at the University of Minnesota Law with a focus in energy law, told the Washington Examiner he believes the conference is fit for a “more limited purpose,” such as informing other nations on emission reduction progress and discussing climate funding for poorer nations. 

“There’s a lot of things where it’s useful,” Coleman said, admitting he believes actual solutions to climate change are seen on the regulatory level. Coleman indicated he believes COP creates the space for separate nations to bring their own regulations to encourage other countries to adopt similar measures. 

“I think COP will continue to have value. I just think – it’s just not going to save, it’s not going to solve climate change,” Coleman said. “That’s not what it does.” 

Integrity threatened

COP has also been heralded as the top global forum for policy making and agenda forming in tackling climate change. Though, its integrity and efficacy is under threa. 

No matter the host country, the conference has long been criticized for becoming a global carbon emitting event — drawing thousands from across the world over the typically two-week stretch. Last year, COP28 was listed as one of the top five global carbon emitting events for private jets, resulting in around 3,800 tons of CO2 being emitted, according to a study published last week in the Nature Communications Earth & Environment journal. At the time of the conference, many world leaders were slammed for opting to use private flights, with many critics calling it a bad example or counterproductive to the summit itself. 

In an op-ed published by The Guardian at the start of this year’s conference, Swedish activist Greta Thunberg lambasted the summit, saying years of gatherings “have proven to be greenwashing conferences that legitimize countries’ failures to ensure a liable world and future.” 

Thunberg also accused the conference of creating a platform for countries like Azerbaijan, United Arab Emirates, and Egypt — the latter two hosted the last two summits — “to continue violating human rights,” an accusation echoed on a global scale, including by U.S. lawmakers.

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For months, Azerbaijan has been criticized for hosting the climate conference, particularly over its jailing government critics and members of the media, as well as its economic dependence on the burning of fossil fuels for oil and gas production. The International Energy Agency estimates that oil and gas account for around 90% of Azerbaijan’s export revenue, supporting around 60% of the nation’s federal budget.

In a study published in late October by Transparency International and the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, climate researchers warned that hosting COP29 in a country like Azerbaijan could put the summit at greater risk for greenwashing and corruption. However, Brice Böhmer, Climate and Environment Lead at Transparency International, told the Washington Examiner it may now be beyond risks. 

Last week, a secret recording obtained by the BBC reportedly showed Azerbaijan’s deputy energy minister and COP29 CEO Elnur Soltanov discussing possible fossil fuel deals in exchange for sponsorship for the conference from a faux energy investment firm. Emails also reviewed by the outlet, exchanged between Soltanov’s team and the fake sponsor, reportedly show discussions for a $600,000 sponsorship deal in exchange for an introduction to SOCAR and involvement in a COP29 event that would focus on “sustainable oil and gas investing.” 

“I think that what we see at the moment is indeed beyond risks, like we see that some of things that we were describing [in the report] are actually happening,” Böhmer said. 

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Specifically, the report warns that COP negotiations are at risk of being influenced by corporate interests — particularly those within the fossil fuel industry — while also opening the door for corruption, personal enrichment or acting as a forum for fossil fuel diplomacy. Already during this year’s conference, Azerbaijan president Ilham Aliyev has defended the fossil fuel industry, calling oil and gas “a gift of the God.” 

“Countries should not be blamed for having them and should not be blamed for bringing these resources to the market because the market needs them,” he said. “The people need them.” 

Böhmer labeled this potential influence from the fossil fuel industry as one of the greater risks to COP and the conference’s overall integrity, saying it may impact entire negotiations and outcomes of the summit. 

“Those impacts are much more important in terms of what impacts it can have on the people and planet,” he said. 

Calls for reform

Calls for an overhaul of the conference don’t appear to be completely a fringe view, as many key players in tackling climate change on a global scale have said the current process is not working. 

On Friday, nearly two dozen scientists, climate advocates, and climate policy leaders sent an open letter to the U.N. member states and Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC Secretariat Simon Stiell, declaring that COP “is no longer fit for purpose.”

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The signers — which included former President of Ireland Mary Robinson, former UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, Earth4All Executive Chair Sandrine Dixson-Decleve, and former Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC Christina Figueres — noted that since COP first began, emissions have still been rising, carbon sinks degrading, and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is now more important than ever. 

“28 COPs have delivered us with the policy framework to achieve this, but it is now clear that the COP is no longer fit for purpose,” the letter reads. “Its current structure simply cannot deliver the change at exponential speed and scale, which is essential to ensure a safe climate landing for humanity.” 

The letter calls for a complete overhaul of the framework for future COPs, shifting the focus towards implementation of policy rather than negotiation. 

Specifically, it calls for an improved selection process for summit hosts, smaller and more frequent meetings rather than a large two-week conference, improved accountability processes, boosted climate financing tracking, a permanent scientific advisory body, attention to the impacts on both ecological and social change, as well as equitable representation between lobbyists and other attendees from scientific institutions, Indigenous communities and more. 

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A reshaping of this nature would likely be met with support, as academics, scientists, and others have called for a de-emphasis of the annual conference. 

“It’s not that I don’t think it’s important,” Jeremy Bassis, a professor of climate and space sciences and engineering at the University of Michigan’s College of Engineering, said of COP29. “It’s just that I think we could be more productive if we focus on smaller meetings, more regional meetings in which we can really start to think about what does it look like in a local community?” 

Bassis suggested that it might no longer make sense to host a summit of this scale in order to successfully tackle climate change. Instead, a focus on domestic action and regional conferences such as New York Climate Week may offer better solutions. 

This year’s Climate Week NYC was held in late September, drawing lawmakers, industry groups, climate experts, and more. At the time, several clean energy groups said they would be prioritizing the local summit over COP29 — primarily due to travel convenience.  

At the same time, many Western nations like the United States have made strides in reducing emissions through prioritizing domestic policy — such as the Democratic-led Inflation Reduction Act and the bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act. Some of this can also be extended on a bilateral scale, such as border carbon adjustments. In May 2023, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) proposed implementing a foreign pollution fee on imported goods from China, in an attempt to boost domestic manufacturing while decreasing greenhouse gas emissions.  For some, it may be time to shine more light in this direction. 

“Both bilateral, smaller negotiations…may just be absolutely critical to our global economy, as well as to addressing climate change,” Coleman told the Washington Examiner. 

As more consider alternatives to addressing climate change on this global stage, some have begun to question if there is potentially a future without COP, with other summits or bilateral discussions at the center of climate action.

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“I think the better question is, is there a future with COP? Bassis told the Washington Examiner. “I think it’s pretty clear that COP has not accomplished, theorated what it was designed for. And so I think it’s worth taking a step back and rethinking how we’ve been pursuing some of these agreements and how we’ve been trying to engage the international process.” 

COP29 began Nov. 11 and is scheduled to last until Nov. 22.