C.H. Robinson warns of potential volatility in upcoming USMCA review

C.H. Robinson, a transportation and third-party logistics company, released its Freight Market Update following the U.S. presidential election, stating that the upcoming U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review in 2026 could be a “volatile process.”

The update notes that “opposing pressures from the business and populist labour communities may make the USMCA review a volatile process.” Additionally, C.H. Robinson anticipates a heightened focus on trade diversion compliance, especially at the U.S.-Mexico border. The company advises supply chain professionals to maintain detailed records on suppliers and consider internal compliance audits to ensure proper documentation of the country of origin.

President-elect Donald Trump has signaled that his supply chain policy will prioritize “de-risking” from China and other offshore manufacturing centres while aiming to reduce or remove renewable energy mandates. This strategy could lead to higher tariffs on all imported goods, with potentially much steeper tariffs on imports from China.

In response, shippers may seek to “de-risk” from China by exploring alternatives such as nearshoring, friendshoring or ally-shoring. Supply chain teams will need to work closely with finance departments to understand how these higher tariffs may impact cash flow and carrying costs.

The earliest implementation for any new tariffs would likely be in late February or early March. With ongoing port labour uncertainty and the possibility of increased tariffs in the first quarter, shippers should be prepared for a strategic pull-forward of inventory from Asia, which could affect both international and certain domestic freight markets, such as Southern California.

Changes in zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) standards may also pose obstacles to meeting sustainability targets if ZEVs and supporting infrastructure are not available at scale. Conflicting federal and state mandates could further complicate compliance.

While the incoming Trump administration may influence policy in these areas, control of the U.S. House and Senate will shape the next highway, transportation and infrastructure bill, C.H. Robinson said in its update.

These supply chain-specific policies will unfold amid broader debates in Congress around the potential expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which could affect economic demand across both domestic and international freight markets.