With a death and a defection, Republican control of the House falls to 217 seats over 212 Democrats

With the death of Rep. Donald Payne (D-NJ) and the resignation of Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI), just 429 members fill the 435 seats in the House of Representatives as of Wednesday. Republicans control a razor-thin majority of 217 seats, with Democrats in control of 212 seats.

In California, the open seat of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy is up for a special election on May 21. Under the Golden State’s jungle primary system, the conservative Central Valley nominated two Republicans to head to the runoff next month, ensuring the seat will remain under GOP control.

The eastern Colorado seat vacated by former Rep. Ken Buck is up for a special election on June 25. The Republican reportedly timed his resignation specifically to prevent Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) from carpetbagging and claiming his seat, giving the GOP much better odds of keeping the R+13 district.

Republican Bill Johnson’s Youngtown-area seat in Ohio is up for special election on June 11, with GOP nominee Michael Rulli, a state senator, favored to easily win.

Democrat Brian Higgins’s New York district is up for a special election on Tuesday, when the D+11 district will likely reelect a Democrat.

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So in exactly one week, the GOP’s House margin will temporarily shrink to 217-213. For less than a month, Republicans will have exactly one vote to spare if a member crosses the aisle. By the end of June, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will likely have a bit of breathing room if the special elections bring Republican control back to 220-213. But in Washington these days, a month is a lifetime.

The question is whether any rogue Republican chooses to fire the loaded gun of the ridiculous rule that only one member is needed to follow through on a motion to vacate the speakership. If the Republican suicide bombers can at least wait until the end of June, the party might be able to save itself in case of a vote to protect Johnson’s speakership. But anything before then, and the only party capable of keeping Republicans in control of the House would be … the Democrats — if they’re willing to defect.