Israel braces for threatened “crushing response” from Iran, possibly after Tuesday’s US election

“Senior U.S. and Israeli officials recently confirmed that the IDF strikes rendered Iran’s S-300 air defense systems inoperable,” the Institute for the Study of War noted, calling the Russian S-300 “the most advanced air defense system that Iran operates.”

“The United States of America and the Zionist regime will definitely receive a crushing response for what they do against #Iran and the #Resistance Front,” Khamenei’s social media posts said. “This isn’t just about revenge [on Zionist regime]. It’s about a logical move, in line with our religion, ethics, Islamic laws, and international laws [against Global Arrogance].”

The New York Times reported that Khamenei ordered preparations for the retaliation “after he reviewed a detailed report from senior military commanders on the extent of damage to Iran’s missile production capabilities and air defense systems.” The Wall Street Journal reported that “Iran has told Arab diplomats that its conventional army would be involved because it had lost four soldiers and a civilian in Israel’s attack.”

An assessment from The Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War concluded the Oct 26 attack “likely seriously degraded the Iranian ability to defend against further Israeli attacks” and “also inflicted significant damage on facilities tied to the Iranian drone and missile programs,” which it assessed “could disrupt Iran’s ability to manufacture drones and ballistic missiles for itself and its partners, such as Russia.” 

IRAN THREATENS TO PURSUE NUCLEAR WEAPONS IF FACED WITH ‘EXISTENTIAL THREAT’

BLINKEN: ‘FOCUS NOW MUST BE ON ENDING THE WAR’: Speaking to reporters at the State Department last week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken argued that Israel had accomplished all it set out to do, and it was time to bring the broader Middle East conflict to a close, free the remaining hostages, and increase the flow of humanitarian aid to civilians displaced by the war.

“For many months, Israel has made clear that the strategic objectives that it had in Gaza – in making sure that October 7th and the horrors of October 7th could never happen again – were the effective dismantlement of Hamas’s military capacity, its organized military capacity, and the elimination of the leaders who were responsible for October 7th,” Blinken said. “Well, the latter is demonstrably done. And the Israelis themselves have said and said publicly that they have dismantled Hamas’s military capacity.  So on that basis, and these are their stated objectives, those objectives having been achieved at great cost in the lives of children, women, men, Palestinians caught in this crossfire of Hamas’s initiation and making.”

“So the focus now must be on ending the war and, in the meanwhile, making sure that people who need the assistance for food, for medicine, and other basic humanitarian needs get the assistance that they need,” he said.

US MAKES FINAL ISRAEL-HAMAS CEASEFIRE PUSH AHEAD OF ELECTION DAY

U.S. SENDS B-52s, F-15s, DESTROYERS TO REGION: Meanwhile, in an effort to deter Iran and bolster Israel’s defenses, the Pentagon announced late Friday the Defense Secretary Lloyd Austion had ordered additional reinforcements to the region, including B-52 long-range strike bombers, a squadron of F-15s, and additional ballistic missile defense warships.

The deployments are “in keeping with our commitments to the protection of U.S. citizens and forces in the Middle East, the defense of Israel, and de-escalation through deterrence and diplomacy,” Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon’s chief spokesperson, said in a statement. “These forces will begin to arrive in coming months as the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group prepares to depart.”

“Secretary Austin continues to make clear that should Iran, its partners, or its proxies use this moment to target American personnel or interests in the region, the United States will take every measure necessary to defend our people,” Ryder said.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre.

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NOTE TO READERS: Daily on Defense will not publish Monday, Nov. 11 as we observe Veterans Day. In addition, Daily on Defense will be on an extended Thanksgiving break from Nov.18-29.

HAPPENING TODAY: President Joe Biden has a light schedule today as he returns to Washington after a weekend in Wilmington, Delaware. However, the one thing on his public schedule is a call later this afternoon to personally express his gratitude to the U.S. military who have been waging an effective counterterrorism campaign against ISIS in Iraq and Syria.

The latest operation came last week when a series of U.S. airstrikes against several known ISIS camps in Syria resulted in up to 35 ISIS operatives killed, according to the U.S. Central Command. “The airstrikes will disrupt the ability of ISIS to plan, organize, and conduct attacks against civilians, as well as U.S. allies and partners throughout the region and beyond,” CENTCOM said in a press release.  

US FORCES KILL MORE THAN 35 ISIS TERRORISTS IN SYRIAN AIRSTRIKES

ZELENSKY: ‘THE WORLD IS JUST WATCHING’: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksy is watching as newly arrived North Korean soldiers are preparing for battle with Ukraine’s war-weary forces, and once again fuming that he lacks the weaponry to hit the troops concentrations before they can attack.

“We see every site where Russia is accumulating these North Korean soldiers on its territory — all their camps. We could strike preventively if we had the capability to hit with sufficient range,” Zelensky said in a Friday video address. “It depends on our partners. Yet, instead of providing the much-needed long-range capabilities, America is watching, Britain is watching, Germany is watching. Everyone is just waiting for the North Korean military to start targeting Ukrainians.”

“North Korea has tested a new ballistic missile … Record flight time and sufficient altitude. Yet the world is just watching. Watching as this threat grows,” Zelensky said. The first thousands of North Korean soldiers are not far from Ukraine’s border. Ukrainians will be forced to defend themselves against them. And the world will be watching again.”

NORTH KOREAN TROOPS JOINING RUSSIAN FORCES IN UKRAINE HIKES CONCERN OVER BURGEONING MOSCOW-PYONGYANG-TEHRAN AXIS

BLINKEN, AUSTIN: NORTH KOREAN SOLDIERS LIKELY ‘JOIN THE FIGHT IN THE COMING DAYS’: After meetings with South Korea’s foreign and defense minister at the State Department last week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin both said it appears clear that the North Korean troops will be used on the front lines soon.

“We now assess that there are some 10,000 North Korean soldiers in total in Russia. And the most recent information indicates that as many as 8,000 of those North Korean forces have been deployed to the Kursk region,” Blinken said. “We’ve not yet seen these troops deploy into combat against Ukrainian forces, but we would expect that to happen in the coming days.”

Our assessment is that Putin’s forces have trained these North Korean soldiers in artillery operations, UAV operations, and basic infantry operations, including trench clearing. The Kremlin has also provided these DPRK troops with Russian uniforms and equipment,” Austin said. “And all of that strongly indicates that Russia intends to use these foreign forces in front line operations in its war of choice against Ukraine.”

“This is the first time in a hundred years that Russia has invited foreign troops into its country,” Blinken said. “Now, one of the reasons that Russia is turning to these North Korean troops is that it’s desperate. Putin has been throwing more and more Russians into a meat grinder of his own making in Ukraine … Russia’s been suffering some 1,200 casualties a day in the east, more than at any other time during the war.”

“The Kremlin’s North Korean gambit just underscores how badly Putin’s war has gone, and how much trouble he’s in,” Austin said. “So at the direction of the President, the United States will continue to surge security assistance to Ukraine, and so will our allies and partners in the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. That includes artillery and air defense, armored vehicles, munitions, and other crucial capabilities. The United States will announce additional security assistance for Ukraine in the coming days.”

NORTH KOREAN TROOPS BEING GIVEN RUSSIAN UNIFORMS AND EQUIPMENT, AUSTIN SAYS

MILITARY RECRUITING REBOUNDS: It was another challenging year for military recruiters, but a combination of more recruiters, greater incentives, and special prep courses for candidates who need help qualifying for military service, helped all five military services meet their goal for the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30.

“Despite a continuously challenging and disinterested recruiting market, at the end of September, the services enlisted just shy of 225,000 new recruits in fiscal year 2024. That’s over 25,000 more than fiscal year 2023,” Katie Helland, the Pentagon’s director of accession policy, said last week. “Furthermore, the services had a 35% increase in contracts written compared to this time last year …  and the active components started fiscal year 2025 with a 10% larger starting pool or a delayed entry program pool compared to this time last year.”

Nevertheless, Helland said recruiters face strong headwinds in convincing young Americans that the U.S. military is a good career choice. “We continue to recruit in a market with low youth propensity to serve, limited familiarity with military opportunities, a competitive labor market, and a declining eligibility among young adults.”

One problem is the growing divide between the military and civilians. “Data indicate that many of today’s youth are not interested in military service and have many misperceptions about what life is like as a service member,” Helland said. “For the first time since this metric has been tracked, the majority of youth have never even considered military service as an option.”

However, not only are American youth less interested in serving in uniform, the overwhelming majority are not qualified either because of lack of academic credentials, medical problems, or general lack of physical fitness. “Data show nearly 77% of youth between the ages of 17 and 24 are not qualified for military service without some type of waiver,” Helland said.“It’s important in this to not equate low propensity with high anti-military sentiment. It’s really an expression of lack of knowledge, lack of familiarity,” Rear Adm. James Waters, commander, Navy Recruiting Command, said at a Pentagon roundtable.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

THE RUNDOWN:

Washington Examiner: Iran threatens to pursue nuclear weapons if faced with ‘existential threat’

Washington Examiner: North Korea vows to support Russia until victory in its ‘sacred struggle’ invading Ukraine

Washington Examiner: China dismisses North Korean troops in Russia as a ‘matter for themselves’

Washington Examiner: North Korean troops joining Russian forces in Ukraine hikes concern over burgeoning Moscow-Pyongyang-Tehran axis

Washington Examiner: North Korea is digging mysterious trenches on its border with South Korea

Washington Examiner: McCaul calls for immediate surge in weapons for Israel despite US threats to withhold

Washington Examiner: US makes final Israel-Hamas ceasefire push ahead of Election Day

Washington Examiner: Trump unfiltered in final moments of campaign

Washington Examiner: North Korea, Iran, Gaza — What’s next for global conflicts?

Washington Examiner: US intel community says video of Haitian claiming to vote multiple times is Russian disinformation

New York Times: As Russia Advances, US Fears Ukraine Has Entered a Grim Phase

Wall Street Journal: The Nerdy Gamers Who Became Ukraine’s Deadliest Drone Pilots

AP: Israel says it carried out ground raid into Syria, seizing a Syrian citizen connected to Iran

Wall Street Journal: Israel Inflicted Severe Damage on Iran’s Missile Program, Air Defenses

Washington Post: Iran’s Khamenei warns of ‘crushing’ response to Israeli strikes

Washington Post: Entire northern Gaza population ‘at imminent risk of dying,’ U.N. agency says

Washington Post: North Korea boasts of ‘the world’s strongest’ missile, but experts say it’s too big to use in war

Yonhap: Yoon calls for thorough countermeasures against ‘illegal’ N. Korea-Russia military cooperation

Wall Street Journal: China Faces a Dilemma With North Korean Troops Pouring Into Russia

CNN: Satellite Imagery Shows Mystery Ship Built In China Amid Breakneck Naval Expansion

Reuters: Taiwan Reports Rise In Chinese Military Activity As U.S. Election Nears

The Hill: Taiwan Braces for US Election as China Tensions Rise

AP: Japan Has Grounded its V-22 Osprey Fleet Again After Flight Incident

Washington Post: Army criminal investigators scrutinize key U.S. general

Air & Space Forces Magazine: 4 Keys to the Election Results for the Air & Space Forces

Breaking Defense: As Election Day Looms, What Trump and Harris Presidencies Will (and Won’t) Mean for Defense

Air & Space Forces Magazine: B-52 Bombers Deploy to Middle East to Deter Iran, More F-15E Fighters to Come

Air & Space Forces Magazine: KC-46s Deploy to Middle East for 1st Time

Breaking Defense: Pentagon Developing ‘Responsible AI’ Guides for Defense, Intelligence, Interagency—Even Allies

Aviation Week: Skunk Works Shows New, Optionally Crewed Tanker Concept

Defense One: New Solid-Rocket Maker Aims to Start Production Next Year

SpaceNews: Astranis Partners with Xona Space for US Military GPS Backup Program

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Allvin Says CCA Will Be ‘Pathfinder’ for New Way of Acquisition: Design over Sustainment

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Facing Growing Threats, Space Industry Expands Its Cyber Warning Center

Militarycom: Pentagon Blind to Troop Woes in Areas Across US with Limited Housing Options, Report Finds

AP: Remains of naval aviators killed in Washington state training flight to return home

The War Zone: Army Coyote Drone-Hunting Drones Have Scored 170 Combat KillsMilitary Times: Opinion: Fighters and Bombers Are What America Needs to Win—Not Quadcopters

THE CALENDAR: 

MONDAY | NOVEMBER 4

10 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “Navigating GPS Vulnerabilities: Implications for U.S. Economic and National Security,” with FCC Commissioner Nathan Simington; Dana Goward, president, Resilient Navigation and Timing Foundation; Todd Humphreys, professor in engineering, University of Texas at Austin; Zak Kassas, chair in intelligent transportation systems, Ohio State University; and retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, senior director, Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation https://www.hudson.org/events/navigating-gps-vulnerabilities

11:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “China in the Middle East,” with Rick Waters, managing director for China, Eurasia Group; Yun Sun, co-director, Stimson Center’s East Asia Program; Jude Blanchette, CSIS chair in China studies; and Jon Alterman, director, CSIS Middle East Program https://www.csis.org/events/china-middle-east

12:30 p.m. —  Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual discussion: “The European Union and the Gulf in the Changing World Order,” with EU Special Representative for the Gulf Region Luigi Di Maio; and Renaud Dehousse, SAIS Europe rector https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events

4 p.m. —  Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The Past, Present, and Future of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Autonomy, DOD,” with former Assistant Air Force Secretary for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics Will Roper, founder and CEO of Istari Digital https://www.csis.org/events/past-present-and-future-ai

TUESDAY | NOVEMBER 5 

10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies Diversity and Leadership in International Affairs Project virtual discussion: “From Military Service to Leading Veterans Affairs,” with Deputy Veterans Affairs Secretary Tanya Bradsher https://www.csis.org/events/driving-impact-live

7 p.m. — Harris-Walz Campaign election night event at Howard University, Vice President Kamala Harris’s alma mater.: [email protected]

WEDNESDAY | NOVEMBER 6 

1:30 p.m. —Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies discussion: “Space Force: Journey of its stand-up, make-up, and a look to its future,” with Lt. Gen. Douglass Schiess, commander, U.S. Space Forces and combined joint force space component commander, U.S. Space Command https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/sss-lt-gen-douglas-a-schiess-24/

2 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: “Harnessing Mission-First Technologies to Transform Army Readiness,” with Maj. Gen. Glenn Dean, program executive officer of Army Ground Combat Systems; and Sgt. Maj. Brian Hester, senior ranking non-commissioned officer at Army Futures Command https://events.govexec.com/harnessing-mission-first-technologies

THURSDAY | NOVEMBER 7 

10 a.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW — U.S. Institute of Peace discussion: “First in War, First in Peace: Building Post-Conflict Stability and Democracy,” focusing on the example of George Washington and the role of military veterans in securing stability and democracy,” with Lindsay Chervinsky, executive director, George Washington Presidential Library; Marine Corps Brig. Gen. Maura Hennigan, commanding general, 2nd Marine Logistics Group; retired Army Col. Carolyn Washington, adjunct professor at Florida State University; and Keith Mines, vice president, USIP Latin America Program https://www.usip.org/events/first-war-first-peace-2024

10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies and the Smithsonian Institution Cultural Rescue Initiative discussion: “Safeguarding Ukraine’s Cultural Heritage from Russia’s War,” with Richard Kurin, Smithsonian scholar; and Katharyn Hanson, Smithsonian scholar https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/safeguarding-ukraines-cultural-heritage

10:30 a.m. Brussels, Belgium — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. virtual discussion: “The U.S. Election: Implications for the U.S., the EU, and Global Politics.” https://www.gmfus.org/event/us-election-implications-us-eu-and-global-politics

1 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Funding Allied Innovation: Ensuring Advanced Capabilities for the Future Warfighter,” with Barbara McQuiston, chair, NATO Defense Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic’s board of directors; Fiona Murray, vice chairman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology NATO Innovation Fund; Jason Rathje, director, Defense Department Office of Strategic Capital; and Cynthia Cook, director, CSIS Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group https://www.csis.org/events/funding-allied-innovation

FRIDAY | NOVEMBER 8 

8:30 a.m. 2445 M. St., NW — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group conversation: “Climate Security is National Security” with Brendan Owens, assistant secretary of defense for energy, installations and environment, and chief sustainability officer email [email protected].

2 p.m. 1030 15th Street NW — Atlantic Council Global China Hub virtual discussion of new report: “Capture the (Red) Flag: An Inside Look Into China’s Hacking Contest Ecosystem,” with Jessica Ruzic, CISA deputy associate chief of policy; Eugenio Benincasa, senior researcher, cyberdefense project on ETH Zurich Center for Security Studies Risk and Resilience Team; Dakota Cary, nonresident fellow, Atlantic Council Global China Hub; Devin Thorne, principal threat intelligence analyst for China geopolitics at Recorded Future; Anastacia Webster, lead of CISA’s Academic Partnerships and Outreach Sub-Division; and Melanie Hart, senior director, Atlantic Council Global China Hub https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/capture-the-red-flag-an-inside-look-into-chinas-hacking-contest-ecosystem/

2 p.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW — U.S. Institute of Peace discussion: “The New Lives of Russians in Exile,” with Aron Ouzilevski, Institute of Current World Affairs fellow; Lyubov Sobol, Russian opposition politician; Anna Veduta, director of strategic communication, Free Russia Foundation; and Gregory Feifer, Institute of Current World Affairs executive director https://www.usip.org/events/new-lives-russians-exile