Russia Steps Up Attacks Against Ukrainian Shipping with Latest Incidents

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Russian military or aligned groups have been disrupting any shipping activity pertaining to Ukraine. Russia has conducted a series of coordinated strikes against Ukrainian-affiliated shipping vessels – mainly commercial. Its goal has been simple: to disrupt Ukrainian imports and exports in such a way that it affects the Ukrainian economy.

Now, Russia has once again ramped up its attacks on Ukrainian vessels and associated port infrastructure. Just since the beginning of October, there were have been several major incidents worth noting.

In the last week alone, Russia conducted five strikes that killed 14 people and injured 28, per U.N. totals. Last Friday, Russian ballistic missiles struck a residential building in the port city of Odesa, presumably with the intended target of the main port at Odesa. Four people were killed in the attack.

Last week, a container ship was struck by a Russian missile. The vessel was under the flag of island nation Palau. That incident followed another the prior day where another missile struck a vessel under the Saint Kitts and Nevis banner.

Why were the attacks ramped up at this specific time?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was visiting several key European allies on a days-long tour when the strikes occurred. Russia was likely trying to send a signal that it can still strike Ukrainian shipping infrastructure, even after deals were previously struck with regional countries and the United Nations on excluding certain port infrastructure from the attacks on humanitarian grounds.

Ukraine exports grain to the world. Indeed, it is a leading global exporter of grain products. As such, Russia has throughout the course of the war tried to limit this export to damage the Ukrainian economy and inflict a high-cost on Ukraine.

What comes next?

Winter is coming, and that means fighting between Ukraine and Russia is likely to decrease at least a bit (if the past is any indication.) But, Russia is more determined than ever to mount a counter-offensive against Ukraine. With the U.S. Presidential election looming, Russia may try further action against Ukraine to ramp up its efforts to negotiate with the next U.S. President on the matter of Ukraine funding.

Since the start of the war nearly three years ago, almost 300 port facilities were targeted, mostly near the Black Sea city of Odesa. That pattern looks likely to continue at least for now.