Florida Poll Shows Marijuana Legalization Measure Falling Short But Within Margin Of Error As DeSantis Claims It Would Cost The State Money

One of the final polls of the election cycle shows majority support for a Florida marijuana legalization ballot initiative. But while it’s still short of the 60 percent requirement needed for for passage under state law, the pollsters noted that it’s still within the margin of error to succeed.

At the same time, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ramping up his anti-cannabis rhetoric ahead of Election Day—claiming that the legalization measure would cause the state to lose tourism revenue despite the fact that other legal states have consistently seen an influx in out-of-state visitors to patronize their cannabis businesses.

The survey from Victory Insights that was released on Monday found that 56 percent of likely voters are in favor of the cannabis measure, Amendment 3, while 44 percent are opposed. The poll involved interviews with 400 likely voters from November 1-2.

That wouldn’t be enough to pass a constitutional amendment, which requires at least 60 percent of the vote, but the firm noted that while “our best guess is that they will both narrowly fail,” it’s still “important to acknowledge that support for both amendments is within the margin of error”

Amendment 3 would legalize recreational marijuana in the state of Florida.

It needs 60% support to pass.

Our latest numbers:
55.7% In Favor
44.3% Against

Support for Amendment 3 falls just short of 60%, but within the margin of error.

Press Release: https://t.co/t4R0IW1svo pic.twitter.com/r0CEmDahAD

— Victory Insights (@VictoryPolling) November 4, 2024

“For that reason, our best guess is just that: a best guess—we cannot conclude with sufficient statistical confidence that either amendment will pass or fail,” it said, referring to both the cannabis initiative and a separate abortion rights measure.

Meanwhile, DeSantis isn’t relenting in his push to defeat the cannabis reform. At an event with business and law enforcement officials on Monday, he reiterated his opposition. And in doing so, he argued that the state’s current medical marijuana program has enabled access to cannabis for recreational purposes as well, which he says renders the adult-use initiative redundant.

“This is a horribly written amendment,” he said. “I could take the 10 most significant weed enthusiasts in Florida and they would never write an amendment like this. This is not the way you do business.”

“I think it’s important to say Florida does have legal marijuana. We have a medical marijuana program—close to a million Floridians have cards,” he said. “Not all of them have debilitating medical conditions. Let’s just be honest here, okay? There’s weed stores everywhere. I mean, how far would we have to go from here before we found a weed store? They’re everywhere, and people use it apart from the medical program as well.”

“Let’s just be clear: If there are people in Florida that really desire marijuana, don’t tell me they’re not already able to get it. They are,” he said.

Changing the constitution is a big deal. Once an amendment passes, it’s effectively permanent—and any problems it may create cannot simply be “fixed” by legislation. Before voting on any amendment, it’s doubly important to read the fine print, find out how it got on the ballot,… pic.twitter.com/6ZhtPv55O6

— Ron DeSantis (@GovRonDeSantis) November 4, 2024

The governor says his chief complaint is that the initiative is written in a way that he claims exclusively benefits large corporations—primarily the campaign’s primary financial backer, the multi-state operator Trulieve. At Monday’s event, he also renewed his criticism that the measure as written would not allow a home grow option, despite not personally advocating for legislation to allow for that or to generally stop criminalizing adults for using cannabis in a non-medical context.

The campaign behind the legalization initiative, Smart & Safe Florida, is also delivering a closing message on Amendment 3. For example, activists spoke at a press conference on Monday with military veterans backing the reform.

“Veterans have been at the forefront of advocating for state and national marijuana reform to allow access to marijuana treatment,” Morgan Hill, campaign spokesperson, said. “We know that marijuana helps treat pain and reduces the use of opioids.”

The cannabis initiative has benefitted from major endorsements, including that of former President Donald Trump, the 2024 GOP presidential nominee and a Florida resident who’s said he will be supporting it. At the same time, it’s faced a concerted opposition campaign from top officials such as DeSantis and the state Republican Party.

The Smart & Safe Florida campaign took in over $150 million—with funding coming primarily from large cannabis companies such as Trulieve. The company separately filed a defamation suit against the state’s Republican Party, alleging it’s knowingly deceived voters about the proposed constitutional change known as Amendment 3.

Smart & Safe Florida rolled out a series of ads in September—including one calling out the hypocrisy of criminalizing cannabis while alcohol is legally available and another featuring a county sheriff making the case for ending marijuana prohibition.

In October, advocates aired another pair of ads, including one that features clips of Trump endorsing the cannabis reform proposal—with a call for voters to “join” him in supporting the measure.

The promotion came just weeks after Smart & Safe Florida released a separate ad highlighting the fact that both major party presidential nominees—Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris—as well as their running mates share at least one thing in common: They don’t believe in criminalizing people over cannabis.

The Florida campaign also released another ad featuring state Sen. Joe Gruters (R), who’s endorsed the initiative. In that ad, the GOP senator and former chair of the Florida Republican Party said he’s “as MAGA as they come,” referencing his support for Trump.

Grunters and Sen. Shevrin Jones (D) also teamed up to promote the state marijuana legalization initiative in another campaign ad. The bipartisan senators stood side-by-side, acknowledging that while they “don’t agree on much—hardly anything” and would be each voting for their respective party’s presidential nominee, they “do agree on this: Amendment 3 is good for Florida.”

Bipartisan Florida senators hit back at the governor over the use of taxpayer dollars to fund anti-marijuana ads ahead of the legalization vote—with one Republican member saying state agencies “owe an explanation” if reports are true that millions were diverted from an opioid-related settlement account to promote the cannabis “propaganda.”

Meanwhile, Nikki Fried, the chair of the Florida Democratic Party and a former state agriculture commissioner, has endorsed Amendment 3. And the chair also laid out a framework for regulating cannabis that she thinks the legislature should enact if voters do approve the reform. That involves automatic expungements for prior marijuana convictions, taking steps to mitigate the risk of monopolization in the industry and directing tax revenue to Black communities and education.

While polling has also consistently demonstrated that the ballot measure enjoys majority support from Democrats and Republicans alike—and despite the fact that Trump has endorsed it as well—Florida’s governor has not relented in his crusade to defeat it.

DeSantis has faced allegations of weaponizing state departments to push anti-legalization narratives through various PSAs in recent weeks—prompting one Democratic state senator to sue over what he claimed was an unconstitutional appropriation of tax dollars. A Florida judge has since dismissed that lawsuit due to what he claimed to be a lack of standing and claim of injury.

Ads from multiple state agencies—including the Departments of Transportation, Education, Health and Children & Families—have aired in recent weeks. The one that a Democratic senator sued over came from the transportation department, which asserted that “DUI crashes increase in states with legalized marijuana, putting everyone at risk.” That was dismissed by a state circuit court, however.

Opponents of Amendment 3 hired a number of right-wing influencers—including former Trump attorney Jenna Ellis, actor Kevin Sorbo and affiliates of the conservative nonprofit Turning Point USA—to post critically on social media about the policy proposal, claiming, for example, that it would hand control of the cannabis market to “greedy” corporate actors and that the smell of marijuana would be “EVERYWHERE.”

The former head of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) under then-President Bill Clinton urged Florida voters to reject the marijuana legalization initiative, arguing that it would create a “new addiction-for-profit industry” in the state.

A political committee opposing the legalization measure has received a half-million-dollar contribution from an organization that Elon Musk reportedly used to quietly support DeSantis before he dropped out of the 2024 presidential race. At the same time, the pro-legalization campaign has officially exceeded $100 million in total contributions.

A GOP congressman who was previously arrested over marijuana said in October that he will be voting against the measure. While Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) said in September that he was undecided on marijuana legalization, the congressman has now affirmed he will be a “no” vote on the initiative.

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), for his part, has said he intends to vote against it, strictly because he feels the reform should be enacted statutorily, rather than as a constitutional amendment that would prove more challenging to amend.

On the other hand, Rep. Brian Mast (R-FL), co-chair of the Congressional Cannabis Caucus, predicted earlier this year that the measure will pass.

Polling on Amendment 3 has fluctuated over the course of the election cycle, though it’s fairly consistently found majority support for the proposal—even if it hasn’t always reached the 60 percent threshold.

An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey that was released last month found that support for Amendment 3 is at 60 percent, while 34 percent are opposed and 6 percent remain undecided.

Meanwhile, the Florida Chamber of Commerce, which has publicly opposed the cannabis measure, also came out with its latest poll on the issue last month. It found support for the reform from likely voters at 57 percent—a majority but not quite enough to secure passage.

A previous survey from the chamber that was released in September 2024 found that 59 percent of likely voters in the state backed Amendment 3.

A poll from the James Madison Institute (JMI) from August 2024 showed 64 percent of likely voters in Florida were in favor of the legalization proposal.

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