The four MSOs that could get buzzed on Ohio

With the Ohio adult-use cannabis sales set to launch in a matter of weeks, four multistate operators stand poised to reap significant benefits from the new market.

That’s according to equity analyst Pablo Zuanic of Zuanic & Associates, who reviewed the current landscape and the four MSOs.

Zuanic expects sales to begin July 1, just in time for the Fourth of July, which is typically a strong holiday for cannabis sales. Ohio is also expected to benefit from having very few neighbors with legal recreational markets – with Michigan the notable exception. That means it will likely draw customers from border states that have yet to see the light.

The analyst estimates that total cannabis sales – meaning both adult-use and medical – to reach $2.3 billion by the end of year. That’s based on a sales projection of $200 per capita. In the first five months of 2024, medical sales topped $205 million, according to data from the state’s Division of Cannabis Control.

Currently, the state has 123 operating medical dispensaries, plus nine  with “active provisional” dispensary licenses. By mid-2025, Zuanic forecasts that the state will have 254 adult-use dispensaries.

Ohio market

According to Zuanic, 42 of the 123 operational stores (34%) are owned by public MSOs:

• Acreage Holdings – 5 stores, operating under The Botanist brand
• Ascend Wellness Holdings – 5 stores
• The Cannabist Co. – 5 stores, four under the Columbia Care banner and one under gLeaf
• Cresco Labs – 5 stores, operating as Sunnyside
• Green Thumb Industries – 5 stores, under the Rise banner
• Verano Holdings – 5 stores, operating as Zen Leaf
• Vext Science – 4 stores (two consolidated and two under letters of intent)
• Ayr Wellness – 3 stores
• Curaleaf – 2 stores
• Jushi Holdings – 1 store
• MariMed – 1 store
• Trulieve Cannabis Corp. – 1 store

In addition, Zuanic noted, TILT Holdings has a processing license, but no cultivation or retail operations in the state.

As with other states, location will likely be a major factor in terms of success, the report pointed out several times. Existing license holders could benefit from having a head start.

However, Zuanic wrote, “it is unclear at this stage if incumbents will be able to choose locations for their next stores or if a lottery system will apply.” Such allocation mattered in Michigan and would likely be a critical issue in Ohio as well.

Of the 12 MSOs already operating cannabis stores in the state, four far surpass the others with regard to their potential for value creation. These include:

• Vext (potential of a 471% increase in company value) – Vext holds four retails licenses in Ohio, and the company also has an operating cultivation facility with an initial 25,000 square feet fully built out. The first harvest from the facility was achieved in the first quarter of 2023. Vext anticipates the opportunity to operate seven dispensaries in the state when all is said and done. The company currently has a market cap of $45 million, which means it has room to grow. (It should be noted that Vext hired Zuanic to increase its profile).
• Acreage (275%) – Acreage has a total of seven licenses in the state: five dispensaries, one cultivator, and one manufacturer. The company had planned to sell these assets, but changed its mind. Like Vext, Acreage also has a market in the low $40 million range.
• The Cannabist (185%) – The Cannabist has five active dispensary licenses plus one cultivator and two manufacturer licenses. It has a much higher market cap than the previous two MSOs, coming in at $107 million. The company also lists Ohio as being one of its top five markets.
• Ascend (62%) – Ascend has five medical retail licenses, including the pending acquisition of Ohio Patient Access, and one cultivation/processing license. The company said it expects to open more stores. Ascend has a $219 million market cap.

While Zuanic’s report only briefly mentioned the other state leaders – Green Thumb, Verano, and Cresco Labs, each with five stores in operation – he did note that Cresco and Green Thumb typically outperform in the wholesale market in other states.

He also projected that Green Thumb and Cresco Labs would likely grow to eight stores each.