New Florida cannabis market projections show massive recreational potential

New market analysis figures on the potential for Florida’s recreational marijuana landscape from BDSA show the Sunshine State could reach almost $900 million in recreational sales next year alone, and upwards of $4.5 billion in total marijuana sales by 2028.

The Florida market is already thriving, with $2.3 billion in medical cannabis sold just last year, a growth rate of 18% year-over-year from 2022 to 2023, BDSA reported. So far this year, patient counts reached 878,000, and the number of operational dispensaries totaled 628. All of that further underscores the immense demand for cannabis, even with the red tape and regulatory hoops patients have to endure to get the products they want.

And if the upcoming November election brings victory for the Trulieve-backed (OTC: TCNNF) ballot measure to legalize recreational cannabis, BDSA projected adult-use sales through existing dispensaries will reach $874 million in 2025.

Legalization will lead to a “surge” in consumer penetration rates, BDSA predicted, parallel to how recreational marijuana sales have quickly eclipsed medical sales performance in every other state where adult use has been adopted.

That’ll lead to an increase in total legal spending on marijuana in Florida by a compounded annual growth rate of 12%, BDSA forecast, with total sales hitting $4.5 billion by 2028.

There are some warning signs that the ballot initiative is facing an uphill climb with voters, particularly since the campaign needs a 60% supermajority to become law. A recent poll found that just 49% of Florida voters plan to support the measure, with 14% uncertain and 36% opposed.

Medical marijuana took two attempts in Florida before it was victorious at the ballot box due to the supermajority threshold; the first campaign, in 2014, failed even though it got 58% of the vote. Supporters returned two years later and won with 71% of the vote.