Air cargo demand up again in September but growth narrows

Air cargo demand continued to increase at a high level in September, although year-on-year improvements narrowed slightly compared with the last nine months.

The latest figures from IATA show that air cargo demand in cargo tonne km terms increased by 9.4% year on year in September. Capacity was up 6.4% and the average cargo load factor improved by 1.3 percentage points to 45.6%.

The capacity increase is largely related to the growth in international belly capacity, which rose 10.3%, “extending the trend of double-digit annual capacity growth to 41 consecutive months”. 

While cargo volume growth remains impressive, it has slowed from the double-digit improvements that were recorded in the preceding nine months.

IATA director general Willie Walsh said: “September performance brought continued good news for air cargo markets. With 9.4% year-on-year growth, cargo volumes continued to mark all-time highs for demand.

“Yields are also improving, up 11.7% on 2023 and 50% above 2019 levels. All this points to a strong finish for this year. For longer-term trends, the air cargo world will be closely following the outcome of the US election for indications of how US trade policy will evolve.”

Looking at market indicators, IATA said that industrial production in September rose 1.6% while global goods trade increased 2.8% for a sixth consecutive month of growth.

The Purchasing Managers Index (PMIs) for global manufacturing output, and the PMI for new export orders, were both below the 50-mark at 49.4 and 47.5 respectively, indicating contraction.

And US inflation, based on the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI), declined by 0.2 percentage points to 2.4% in September, the inflation rate in the EU fell by 0.3 percentage points to 2.1% and China’s consumer inflation remained low at 0.4% in September “amid concerns of an economic slowdown”.

Regional performance

Looking at regional performance, Asia Pacific airlines registered 11.7% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in September and capacity was up 8.5%.

North American carriers noted a 3.8% year-on-year demand growth, while capacity was up 4.2% year-on-year.

“European carriers saw 11.7% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in September. Capacity increased 7.5% year on year,” IATA said

IATA figures show that Middle Eastern carriers registered a 10.1% increase in demand against a 2.9% improvement in capacity.

For Latin American carriers there was a 20.9% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in September “the strongest growth among the regions”, IATA pointed out, while capacity increased 7.9%.

Finally, African airlines saw 1.7% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in September, the slowest among regions. Meanwhile, capacity increased 13.9%.

Demand growth on international routes increased by 10.5% year on year increase in September as carriers benefited from “rising e-commerce demand in the US and Europe amid ongoing capacity limits in ocean shipping”.

Air cargo market records nine months of double-digit growth