Six state legislature races to watch in November

Voters may be tuned into the 2024 presidential election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, but the battle for the nation’s state legislatures could be more impactful to some voters than the race for the White House.

A number of state legislatures are up for grabs this election cycle as Republicans and Democrats jockey for control with each local seat they contest.

State legislatures with one party in control can pass legislation at will on matters such as abortion, taxation, and immigration. Only a governor from a different party can foil a state legislature controlled by one party unless the majority party can secure a supermajority in the state legislature.

Republicans have a 28-20 advantage over Democrats in controlling state legislatures. Two states have split chambers, where each party controls one state legislative body. Democrats are worried they could lose state legislative seats in a scenario similar to when they won control of Congress and the White House in 2020 but hemorrhaged support in local races. A repeat of that dynamic this cycle could result in more Republican control of state legislatures.

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is also concerned about fundraising because it is still far short of its $60 million goal for state legislative races. The organization recently sent out a memo detailing that it is $26.2 million short of several advertising targets.

Harris transferred $2.5 million to the DLCC from her campaign in September, and her campaign has assisted down-ballot Democrats in raising funds as well. Nevertheless, Democrats will need all the help they can get to fight off Republicans in state legislative battles where they’ve typically triumphed.

Here are the six states that could see flips in one or both of their legislative chambers.

1. Arizona

Arizona is home to arguably the most hotly contested state legislature races heading into November. Control of both chambers is considered a toss-up, even though Democrats haven’t seized the majority in either the state’s Senate or House in over two decades. Republicans hold a 16-14 state Senate majority and a 31-29 state House majority.

Flipping the legislature would give massive power to Arizona Democrats, given that they already have Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ), who has set records for vetoing the Republican-led legislature’s bills.

State Democrats are hoping an abortion ballot concern will propel them to victory this November as they’ve attacked Republicans who refused to repeal a Civil War-era abortion ban put into effect by the state’s Supreme Court. The ballot measure aims to enshrine abortion access into the state’s constitution.

Democrats have expressed optimism about their chances to flip the state legislature this November.

“This is the best chance the Democrats have had in my lifetime of flipping one or both chambers,” Adam Kinsey, a Democratic strategist, told Politico.

“It’s not that Arizona is getting so much bluer because of voter registration or demographic changes,” he said. “It’s Democrats are running moderate, populist candidates, and Republicans continue to run and elect the most extreme candidates in their primaries.”

2. Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania, another presidential swing state with a Democratic governor, is also expected to have a highly competitive fight for its upper and lower chambers. Along with Arizona, Democrats in Pennsylvania are seeking to use abortion to drive voters to the polls in order to add to their majority in the state House and possibly earn one in the state Senate.

“Control of Pennsylvania and Arizona’s legislatures will come down to just a handful of votes, and abortion could be the driving message that determines who wins in November,” DLCC Interim Communications Director Sam Paisley said in a statement announcing a $2 million ad buy in Pennsylvania and Arizona focused on slamming Republicans who are anti-abortion.

Pennsylvania, unlike Arizona, won’t have abortion on the ballot in November.

Republicans are spending money on state legislative races in anticipation of a major Democratic cash infusion.

The Republican State Leadership Committee previously invested $6.2 million into Pennsylvania.

“We know that the Democrats intend to flood the battleground states with millions of dollars down the final stretch of the election, which is why the RSLC’s early investments are so critical to winning in key battleground states,” RSLC President Dee Duncan said in a press release.

Republicans need 102 seats to win a majority in the state House, and Democrats need to flip four seats in the state Senate for a majority.

3. New Hampshire

The smallest state legislature up for grabs this election cycle is in New Hampshire, where Democrats could have a ripe opportunity to take control. The state, which generally has voted blue in presidential elections, is controlled by Republicans in both its state House and Senate.

Democrats are, in particular, targeting the state’s House, which is unusual in that it has 400 members, the largest of any state chamber. Some districts elect multiple members to serve in the state legislature, creating a large number.

Democrats are hoping to prevent “ballot roll-off” in the state, a phenomenon that happens when voters vote for the top of the ticket but don’t complete their ballots. According to a DLCC release, New Hampshire’s House and Senate saw the largest underperformance of any major competitive state in 2020. As a result, Democrats lost 46 seats in the state House and four in the state Senate, enough for the GOP to flip both chambers.

In addition, Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) declined to run for reelection, creating an opening for Democrats to snag a trifecta in the state if they can win the gubernatorial race and make state legislative gains. Former Republican New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte is running against former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig for the top executive office in the state. Their race is considered a toss-up as well.

The DLCC has invested a million dollars into the state to achieve the party’s goals. DLCC President Heather Williams called New Hampshire “one of the best opportunities for Democrats this year.”

To win majorities, Democrats need three seats in the state Senate and at least 201 seats in the state House.

4. Wisconsin

Republicans have a slight advantage in both chambers of Wisconsin’s state legislature, but Gov. Tony Evers’s (D-WI) redistricting shifted the state to a more competitive landscape after the Republican legislature had long kept it away from Democrats.

The state Senate is projected to lean Republican, but the state Assembly is a coin toss.

“Ninety-nine seats in the state Assembly,” Democratic Wisconsin Assembly Candidate Ryan Spaude told NPR. “There’s about a dozen that are like mine that could go either way.”

Green Bay, Wisconsin, home of the Packers football team, is of particular interest. Lambeau Field, where the Packers play, is near the race for an Assembly seat that is a toss-up, which was made more interesting by the redistricting. Spaude and his Republican opponent, Patrick Buckley, are vying for the seat.

The seat is just one of many that Democrats would have to flip to take control of the state Assembly. Republicans currently hold a 64-35 advantage in the chamber, but the redistricting has given the Democratic Party a more realistic chance of taking the majority.

“Those maps were not fair to the point that legislators wouldn’t even try,” Denise Gaumer Hutchison, a Democratic voter, told NPR. “They wouldn’t even do doors. They wouldn’t even come talk to people who might be of a different opinion because they didn’t have to. Now they have to.”

5. Minnesota legislature and Michigan House

Both Michigan and Minnesota aren’t holding their state Senate elections this cycle, but Minnesota is holding a single special election to decide control of the Senate chamber. A Democratic incumbent, Kelly Morrison from Minnesota Senate District 45, resigned to focus on a congressional run, and Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) set a special election for this November.

While the district is Democratic-leaning and has been for the last few election cycles, Republican candidate Kathleen Fowke has serious cash behind her campaign. She’s loaned $500,000 in total to her 2022 and 2024 campaigns, although she lost by double-digits to Morrison in 2022.

Democratic candidate Ann Johnson Stewart has the experience of a two-year term in the Minnesota Senate and the backing of almost two dozen other Democratic state senators who want to avoid the chamber falling into Republican hands.

As for the state Houses in both Michigan and Minnesota, the race for control of both chambers will be competitive. Both states currently have Democratic trifectas. Republicans would only need to flip two seats in Michigan and four seats in Minnesota to win control of both state Houses.

Michigan’s House could be a particularly interesting battle, as Republicans recognize the presidential election and other issues will have a significant effect on voter turnout in the swing state.

“Michigan is the center of the political universe right now,” Rep. Bill G. Schuette (R-MI), Michigan House Republican Campaign Committee president, told the Washington Examiner. “There is no legislative chamber [that would be more] impactful to flip than the Michigan State House.”

Schuette said Democrats in the state have a “far left, radical progressive agenda” and have “cut school safety funding by more than 90%.” Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) cut school safety and student mental health funding by $301.5 million in July, some of which has since been restored.

While Republicans lost ground in the 2022 midterm elections, Schuette believes the presidential election will help Republicans take the chamber, as they retained the state House in the 2016 and 2020 elections.

As for Minnesota, some Republicans are trying to be more inclusive to sell themselves to voters this November, especially in Minneapolis, where Republicans had a very loose presence until recently.

“Being inclusive allows the party to build,” said Bob Carney Jr., a Republican state house candidate for District 61B.

Democrats hold the majority of the state House seats in Minneapolis. There are no Republicans representing House districts close to the city center.

“The greatest hill is letting people know we exist,” said Shawn Holster, president and chairman of the Minneapolis Republicans.

6. Kansas and Georgia state legislatures

Democrats have little chance of taking control of the legislatures in Kansas and Georgia. However, they have an opportunity to break up a Republican supermajority in Kansas and prevent the GOP from building one in Georgia.

However, Democrats have historically struggled with the rural voters, who are widely represented in both states.

“We, as Democrats, like stopped paying attention to some of our core voters, particularly rural voters, who really benefit from some of the Democratic policies, but also are understandably feeling like we completely forgot about them, and they’re not wrong,” Kate Barr, a Democratic state Senate candidate who also advocates against gerrymandering in rural, GOP-controlled North Carolina districts, told the Washington Examiner.

Barr doesn’t expect to win and wants Democrats to run in districts that are Republican-favored anyway.

“I believe that competition is good for democracy, even in a safe seat,” she said.

Officials in Georgia and Kansas have also been accused of gerrymandering state maps in favor of the GOP, creating advantages in certain districts and likely adding seats for the party.

In response, the DLCC is spotlighting candidates such as Ashwin Ramaswami, a 25-year-old computer scientist running against Republican Sen. Shawn Still, who was indicted alongside Trump for allegedly trying to overturn the 2020 election results in Georgia. Ramaswami has raised over $700,000 and is aiming to flip a district in an Atlanta suburb that voted for Trump in 2020.

As for Kansas, the state Democratic Party is following Barr’s advice and running for as many seats as possible, even in safe Republican districts. The party announced in June that Democrats filed to run for 92 of 125 state House seats, 34 of 40 state Senate seats, all five state Board of Education seats, and all four congressional seats.

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“We have momentum on our side as our candidates and Kansans across the state are ready to break the Republican supermajorities in the House and Senate,” Kansas Democratic Party Chairwoman Jeanna Repass said in a statement.

Kansas already has Gov. Laura Kelly (D-KS) in office, so added seats for the Democrats could broaden her influence.