Uncertainty Casts a Shadow Over U.S. Meetings Industry, Say ELX and U.S. Travel Leaders

It took Skift Meetings Executive Editor Andrea Doyle several minutes just to describe the numerous repercussions of Trump administration changes so far: DEI confusion, tariff escalation, economic chaos, immigration worries, and concerns about both inbound and outbound international travel. 

“It’s been less than three months, which is pretty hard to believe, and already the ripple effects are being felt all across business events,” she said. “There’s so much uncertainty in the market, and all of this is making an impact.”

Panelists Nicola Kastner, CEO of Event Leaders Exchange (ELX), and Kevin Hinton, managing director, group travel, at U.S. Travel Association, shared their perspectives, but all admitted that the current state of uncertainty might be the biggest concern of all.

Skift Research lowered its outlook for global travel at the beginning of April, now forecasting 2% to 5% travel industry growth in 2025, down from its forecast at the start of the year for 6% to 9% growth.

When asked if there is fear about coming to the U.S. right now, Kastner, who is Canadian, spoke about how media coverage of a Canadian citizen held at the border by ICE for almost two weeks had her concerned about coming to the U.S. “I consulted an immigration lawyer even though there’s nothing in my background that would be any reason for me to not be allowed to come into the U.S.,” she said. “I’m hearing from friends and colleagues who have traveled to the U.S. that nothing has changed. But the perception and fear is definitely there.”

Of ELX’s Canadian members, she said, “Not many of them want to come to the U.S., and their companies have said they are not allowed to come.

“Even myself, and I’m not trying to make this political, but is the U.S. where I want to go spend my personal travel dollars right now? Probably not.” 

Sense of Welcome Diminishing

“It’s a competitive marketplace,” said Hinton. “Our conversations with the administration are that people have choices, and we are not conveying a sense of welcome to the world with these types of policies or this uncertainty about what the policies are and what they aren’t. We need to do a better job of welcoming the world to the U.S., and right now, we’re not putting that message out clearly enough.”

“If we want to grow the U.S. economy, meetings and business events are a great way to do that,” he said, “But we’re having the opposite effect right now.”

The panel spoke about major upcoming sports events, including the FIFA World Cup in New York City in 2026 and the Summer Olympics in Los Angeles in 2028. Hinton admitted that ongoing negative perceptions could also impact these and other big events. “People have a choice of whether they’re going to come here or not. And if they don’t feel like they’re going to be able to enter safely and smoothly, that’s a deterrent. If they don’t feel safe, they will not come.”

The tariff announcement, then the pause, has had the same result of creating uncertainty, panelists said, at a time when decisions need to be made about future events.

Food and beverage, AV, accommodations, and other meeting costs have already risen 38% since 2019, according to Kastner’s research. The potential cost increase from the tariffs — another unknown — will be added on top of that.

“My conversations with our members across the country is that generally, meetings have been holding up very well,” said Hinton. “The concern is what will happen going forward for the rest of the year. For most destinations, from a meeting standpoint, despite the government meeting cancellations, generally, they’ve had a really strong first quarter.

“We’ll see if that is going to continue, and we are asking for our members to share that with us so we get a sense of what the impact will be. That will give us better leverage to talk about the economic impact for meetings being held in the U.S.”