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Independent restaurants—establishments owned and operated by an individual, family, or small group rather than a larger chain or franchise—are more than places to eat. They’re cultural and economic pillars of our communities, employing 3 percent of the U.S. workforce, generating $75 billion in wages, and contributing over $209 billion in revenue each year.
In recent years these community anchors, which rely on the entire food supply chain, have faced compounding challenges—including the pandemic, climate change, and rising costs. Independent restaurants are no strangers to volatility, but today they face a new, unnecessary hurdle: a trade environment disrupted by tariffs.
When diners sit down for a meal, they often don’t see the complex and vulnerable supply chain that dictates the cost and availability of ingredients. For chefs and restaurant owners, these real-time, existential challenges are as plain as day, threatening not only restaurant viability, but also the local economies and food producers that supports.
“Restaurant owners know a cost increase is coming; they just won’t know when it will happen, what the cost increase will be on which products, or for how long.”
Much attention has been focused on this administration’s tariffs, which will impact food imports and have wide-ranging effects across the food supply chain—not just for restaurants, but also for farmers and for regular folks just trying to afford groceries, let alone a meal at their favorite local eatery.
For restaurants and chefs, tariffs create two major problems. First, there’s the unpredictability. What ingredients will be available next month? Which will suddenly become prohibitively expensive? What will the retaliation look like from global trade partners seeking to protect their own economies?
This uncertainty makes it extremely challenging for restaurants to plan menus, pricing, and procurement strategies—crucial elements of staying afloat in an already challenging business. Furthermore, as the administration threatens tariffs, then pulls back or selectively protects certain industries, it creates further volatility in the market that restaurants must grapple with.
Second, there’s the impact when tariffs actually go into effect. While larger chains and franchises may be better able to protect themselves from the impact, for independent restaurants, which operate on razor-thin margins, the rise in costs could be devastating. Tariffs on imports may drive up prices on everything from wine and cheese to seafood, produce, and grains.
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