Brazil’s IPCA-15 inflation index surged by 1.23% in February, marking the steepest increase for the month since 2016, according to data released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) on Tuesday.
This figure, though below market expectations of 1.33%, reflects a sharp acceleration from January’s modest 0.11% rise and highlights persistent inflationary pressures in Latin America’s largest economy.
Annual inflation rose to 4.96%, up from 4.50% in January, reaching its highest level since October 2023. The central bank’s inflation target of 3%, with a tolerance range of ±1.5 percentage points, remains far out of reach despite aggressive monetary tightening measures.
The housing and education sectors drove February’s inflation spike. Housing prices jumped 4.34%, contributing 0.63 percentage points to the overall index. Residential electricity costs soared by 16.33%, reversing January’s 15.46% decline caused by Itaipu energy credits.
Water and sewage tariffs also rose due to rate hikes in cities like Belo Horizonte and Porto Alegre, while piped gas prices fell slightly. Education costs climbed 4.78%, with regular courses increasing by 5.69% as schools implemented annual fee adjustments.
Primary and secondary education saw the largest hikes, at 7.50% and 7.26%, respectively. Food prices rose by 0.61%, slowing from January’s 1.06%. Carrots (17.62%) and ground coffee (11.63%) led household food price increases.
Brazil’s Inflation Challenges and Economic Outlook
Meanwhile, potatoes (-8.17%) and rice (-1.49%) saw declines. Dining out costs grew by 0.56%, with slower increases for both meals and snacks compared to January.
Transportation expenses increased by 0.44%, driven by a 1.88% rise in fuel prices, including gasoline (+1.71%), diesel (+2.42%), and ethanol (+3.22%). Urban bus fares surged by 5.20% due to fare adjustments in major cities like São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.
The central bank is expected to respond with another interest rate hike in March, potentially raising the Selic rate to 14.25%, its highest level in eight years, as it battles persistent inflationary pressures.
This latest data underscores the challenges Brazil faces in stabilizing prices amid rising costs for essential goods and services. It threatens economic recovery efforts as policymakers consider further monetary tightening to curb inflationary trends.
