S&P Global Ratings downgraded Argentina’s local currency sovereign credit rating to “Selective Default” (SD) after the government forced investors into a massive debt swap.
The move, announced last week, involved exchanging $65 billion in peso-denominated bonds maturing in 2024. The new notes have maturities extending through 2028.
This marks a significant moment for President Javier Milei’s administration as it grapples with restoring economic stability. The downgrade reflects S&P’s assessment that the debt swap constitutes a distressed transaction “tantamount to default.”
While 77% of bondholders accepted the deal, private-sector participation remained low at just 17.5%, highlighting limited confidence in Argentina’s financial strategy. The foreign currency credit rating, however, stayed at CCC/C with a stable outlook.
Argentina has relied heavily on domestic debt exchanges to manage its finances since defaulting on international bonds in 2020. Excluded from global capital markets due to high risk premiums and a history of defaults, the government has turned to local markets to roll over obligations.
S&P indicated it might raise the local debt rating once the latest exchange is finalized, but broader economic vulnerabilities persist. The Milei administration faces significant challenges despite recent fiscal improvements.
Argentina’s Economic Outlook
Inflation, which soared to 211% in 2023, dropped to 118% in 2024 and is projected to fall further to 30% by year-end 2025. However, public debt remains high at 110.5% of GDP, and the central bank’s net reserves are still negative.
These factors limit Argentina’s ability to stabilize its currency and attract foreign investment. The government has taken steps to address these issues, including implementing structural reforms and achieving a fiscal surplus for the first time since 2008.
However, reliance on distressed debt swaps underscores ongoing difficulties in securing voluntary market financing. S&P analysts noted that Argentina’s long-term ratings trajectory depends on the administration’s ability to advance its stabilization plan.
While projections suggest GDP growth could reach 4% or more in 2025, uncertainty looms. The country must navigate large foreign currency debt payments due in 2025 and 2026 while managing inflationary pressures and exchange rate volatility.
Securing an agreement with the International Monetary Fund could provide much-needed liquidity and bolster investor confidence. Argentina’s economic recovery remains fragile, with its future hinging on effective reforms and improved access to financial markets.
The selective default designation serves as a stark reminder of the challenges ahead. It highlights the difficulties facing one of Latin America’s most volatile economies.
