McCormick gives GOP chance to erase Oz Senate defeat in Pennsylvania

Republican operatives view the race as a toss-up, one that McCormick could win or lose depending on the early vote and how former President Donald Trump performs at the top of the ticket.

But Republicans feel more comfortable than they did two years ago, when they lost a GOP-held seat to Pennsylvania’s lieutenant governor, John Fetterman.

Republican Mehmet Oz’s loss in that race became part of a narrative that candidate quality had doomed the party in a favorable political climate. Oz, a TV celebrity doctor who struggled to connect with Pennsylvania’s working class, was defeated by 5 points.

This cycle, party strategists expect a far closer race. McCormick, who narrowly lost the 2022 primary by 951 votes, has run a more disciplined campaign than Oz, they say, and better fits the profile of the state as a combat veteran and Pittsburgh-area native.

“I’m not saying McCormick is going to blow it out of the water and sweep the race, but this is going to be a 1-point race one way or the other,” said one Republican operative with experience in Senate races.

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National Republicans have put money behind that belief in the campaign homestretch. GOP super PACs have reserved tens of millions in fresh advertising as election forecasters shifted Pennsylvania into the “toss-up” category.

Today, the 7-point lead Casey once enjoyed now stands at 2, on average. In one poll, he and McCormick are tied.

The glimmer of optimism is based, in part, on the assumption that Trump will give McCormick and other down-ballot Republicans coattails, particularly with the infrequent voters he is known for turning out.

Currently, Trump holds a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania.

“If I had to place a bet, I would probably bet McCormick wins it, because I believe Trump’s going to win Pennsylvania in the end,” said a second GOP operative involved in Senate races.

But Republicans also believe McCormick is a strong candidate in his own right. He’s a West Point graduate running in a state with the fourth-biggest veteran population anywhere in the country.

Meanwhile, his campaign has been devoid of the unforced errors that made Republicans squirm two years ago.

The Oz campaign notoriously insulted Fetterman after he suffered a stroke, pondering if he had “ever eaten a vegetable in his life.”

In another vegetable-related flub, Oz lamented the cost of crudite at a regional grocery chain he mispronounced, giving ammunition to Democrats calling him an elitist out-of-stater from New Jersey.

Even for the most disciplined campaign, defeating Casey will be difficult. He is a three-term senator whose father, Bob Casey Sr., served as governor of Pennsylvania. Before Casey Jr. was in the Senate, he held statewide office for 10 years.

There are signs the Casey name does not go as far as it used to, however. At a Trump rally in Allentown on Tuesday, one attendee told the Washington Examiner he would never vote for Casey even though he’d registered as a Democrat just to support his father decades ago.

“His dad was fantastic, but he’s nothing like his old man,” said Byron Chaundy, 70, naming the younger Casey’s shift to the left on abortion as a disappointment.

Ultimately, Republicans are hoping the low profile Casey cuts in the Senate will allow them to brand him as a rubber-stamp for Harris. He’s more recently aligned himself with Trump, releasing an ad in which he embraces his views on trade and tariffs, but has generally been a reliable vote for the Democrats.

Republicans also see him as less dynamic than Fetterman, a Carhartt-wearing, shaved-head Democrat who outperformed with Trump voters in more rural parts of the state.

McCormick has his own liabilities. He lived in Connecticut for many years, allowing Democrats to revive their claims of carpet-bagging.

One voter at a McCormick event in Pennsburg told the Washington Examiner the attacks had given her pause, though she tentatively plans to vote for him.

“I don’t know if I believe what I hear on the commercials against him,” said Debbie Sholly, a senior treasury analyst from Souderton.

McCormick’s close ties to Wall Street have also created opportunities for Democrats to scrutinize the investments his hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, made while he was CEO, including those in China.

McCormick has run as a tough-on-China Republican in both cycles.

In aggregate, Democrats are running a similar playbook to the one they deployed against Oz. Like in 2022, they are using abortion access as a political cudgel, saying McCormick is “fully against” the procedure despite his opposition to a national ban.

The election will be a test of whether those attacks have durability as Democrats face competing headwinds on the economy and immigration.

It will also test the accuracy of the polls. Oz may have lost by 5 points, but the final surveys showed him in a toss-up race as well.

The knock against Oz was that he lacked authenticity. On paper, his hit TV show should have been an advantage, lending him high name ID in a marquee Senate race. But voters repeatedly cited it as a turnoff in interviews with the Washington Examiner.

“The whole celebrity thing was a little strange,” said Jamie Landis, a horse archery instructor from Green Lane.

“I was not a fan of Oz,” added Scholly. “I just thought he was running on his name and not for us.”

Some of Oz’s disadvantages were beyond his control. Until now, Republicans had not invested significant resources into encouraging the early vote, putting Oz at a greater deficit before a single ballot was cast on Election Day.

By contrast, Republicans have sent multiple mailers to Pennsylvania homes urging voters to get out early for both Trump and McCormick.

McCormick himself delivered his mail-in ballot in Pittsburgh on Monday.

Republicans have searched for signs of comfort or alarm in the early voting figures for Pennsylvania. So far, the number of women casting ballots has outstripped men by more than 10 points, raising concern the gender gap will handicap Trump.

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But Republicans feel McCormick, who endorsed Trump yet shies away from his bombast, will be able to win some votes the former president cannot, among them suburban women.

“He doesn’t cut the same profile as Trump at all,” said the second Republican operative. “Image-wise, he’s more of a traditional Republican. He sounds reasonable, he’s a businessman – I think that’s a good place for him to be.”