Labor won the Victorian eastern suburbs seat of Chisholm off Liberal MP Gladys Liu in 2022 with a margin of 6.4 per cent, but the margin has halved for this election after the Australian Electoral Commission abolished the neighbouring seat of Higgins.
Dutton’s campaign launch in Victoria is a recognition of the crucial battle the Coalition faces there. He must win 21 extra seats to form government, likely requiring major gains in Victoria, where the Coalition holds just 10 of the state’s 39 electorates.
This masthead’s Resolve Political Monitor suggests Dutton is on track to push Labor into minority government and could win outright if his political fortunes keep improving, which would make Albanese’s the only single-term government since the 1930s.
The RPM poll showed Victorian voters gave the Coalition its biggest boost in support since the 2022 election among the mainland states, lifting its primary vote from 33 to 38 per cent, while NSW voters have increased their Coalition support from 37 to 38 per cent.
Dutton has recently sought to soften his image, with an Instagram message emphasising social unity and a long-form podcast interview discussing youth mental health, his experience in the police force, belly-flopping into a pool and his upbringing “with a focus on the importance of family”.
He has also built a significant following on TikTok, since joining late last year, after he backflipped on a previous call for US-style restrictions on the Chinese-owned app because of national security concerns.
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Chinese Australians comprise 16.5 per cent of voters in Chisholm, where Dutton’s rally will be held, including many who swung heavily against the Morrison government in the previous federal election following its hawkish rhetoric against the Chinese Communist Party.
Labor remains bullish about its prospects with that constituency. The party organised focus group meetings with Chinese-speaking voters in Melbourne last year and the results, said Labor sources unauthorised to speak publicly about the research, showed Dutton remained a divisive and aggressive figure in the diaspora.
The 54-year-old former Queensland police officer was elected to parliament during the Howard government, representing the northern Brisbane seat of Dickson, and became opposition leader in 2022, following Scott Morrison’s defeat.
As opposition leader, he revived the Coalition’s fortunes by opposing the Voice and attacking Labor over migration while breaking with traditional Liberal ideology to attack big business on culture wars issues.
In one example, Dutton accused the supermarket giant Woolworths of “peddling woke agendas” when it announced last year it would not stock Australia Day merchandise.
Woolworths has announced it will again stock Australia Day goods this year, and Dutton has sought to capitalise on an apparent shift in the electorate away from such socially progressive moves.
“We will govern with respect for the views, values and vision of everyday Australians,” his speech notes say.
But they also show a focus on managing rising economic pressures, which voters consistently name as their top priority. “I want Australia to emerge out of Labor’s cost-of-living crisis,” Dutton will say.
