Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal could be hours away
GAZA CEASEFIRE ‘AGREED’
Numerous officials and news organisations are reporting Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of dozens of hostages. However, the Associated Press notes that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said some issues were still being resolved on Wednesday evening (local time). “We hope the details will be worked out tonight,” his office said in a statement.
The newswire said the proposed deal is expected to pause the fighting with the hope of “winding down the most deadly and destructive war Israel and Hamas have ever fought, a conflict that has destabilised the Middle East and sparked worldwide protests”.
US officials said the ceasefire would be implemented in the coming days, with outgoing President Joe Biden saying in a statement: “Today, after many months of intensive diplomacy by the United States, along with Egypt and Qatar, Israel and Hamas have reached a ceasefire and hostage deal. My diplomacy never ceased in their efforts to get this done.”
AP says the hostage release part of the deal would involve three stages, with the first involving Hamas releasing 33 women, children, older adults and wounded civilians, in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian children and women imprisoned by Israel. The BBC says it is not clear how many of the 33 seized on October 7 are still alive.
The British broadcaster adds the deal, which has been “widely leaked” will involve an initial six-week ceasefire. Israel will also remove its soldiers from the more densely populated parts of the Gaza Strip, with more aid and fuel immediately allowed in. The BBC says there will also be a “managed return of Gaza’s two million displaced to their homes. Or, quite possibly, the rubble that was once their homes”.
CNN reports Hamas has told Gaza residents “not to move before the official start of the ceasefire”. Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said in a press conference on Wednesday evening the ceasefire will begin on Sunday with exact timings to be confirmed, the BBC said.
As news of the deal broke (although as noted above Israel claims issues remain), celebrations broke out in places like the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis, while hundreds of demonstrators gathered outside the Israeli military headquarters in Tel Aviv calling for the deal to be completed, the Associated Press added.
The proposed deal follows months of talks, with Qatar acting as one of the main mediators, and comes in Biden’s last week as US president. His successor and predecessor Donald Trump has declared the “epic ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our historic victory in November”, the BBC reports.
The Israeli government will vote on the ceasefire deal on Thursday, with a majority of ministers expected to approve it, a government official told Reuters.
SHORTEN EXITS EARLY
Former Labor leader Bill Shorten is leaving politics more than a week earlier than expected, finishing up on Monday.
The NDIS minister will end almost two decades in politics next week, providing Prime Minister Anthony Albanese with the opportunity for a minor reshuffle ahead of the federal election this year.
Earlier in the week, Guardian Australia reported Social Services Minister Amanda Rishworth is tipped to take over the NDIS brief from Shorten, while a government source also told the ABC overnight that Rishworth will add the NDIS to her portfolio, Finance Minister Katy Gallagher will take over Centrelink and Anne Aly will become junior disability minister.
The reporting this morning doesn’t get to the bottom of why Shorten is leaving nine days earlier than planned, with the former Labor leader denying to the ABC that he was asked to leave early so the reshuffle could happen ASAP. “The timing is right and it allows the prime minister to name the minister or ministers so the team can be established before the election,” he said.
On who picks up his portfolios, the 57-year-old said: “It’s up to the PM to pick someone. All my colleagues are talented and frankly they’re as good a cabinet that’s been around in many, many years … He’s got a wealth of choices.”
If you’ve forgotten, Shorten is off to be the vice-chancellor at the University of Canberra from next month.
On the hole Shorten leaves in cabinet, ABC reports Albanese could announce his reshuffle as early as today. It had been speculated Opposition Leader Peter Dutton would also reshuffle his frontbench before Christmas following the retirements of foreign affairs spokesperson Simon Birmingham and the manager of opposition business Paul Fletcher, but it has yet to happen.
Guardian Australia has led overnight on its interview with Greens leader Adam Bandt in which he claims that a power-sharing government involving his party and Labor (at present all polling points to a minority government next term) could result in significant progressive reform and said stopping Dutton from becoming PM was now his party’s main focus.
The site notes the focus on Dutton marks a shift for the Greens, who spent most of 2024 battling with the Labor government over issues such as housing.
“There came a point for us at the end of last year when we realised we pushed as far as we could on issues like housing. Labor wasn’t prepared to act on negative gearing or capital gains tax, but we got some additional money for public and social housing. That was a good result that will make people’s lives better,” Bandt said, defending the tactics.
He also claimed in the interview the Greens and Labor could prevent a US-style shift to the political right in Australia.
Albanese, for his part, was busy splashing the cash around Tasmania on Wednesday, promising airport upgrades and housing projects among other things, the Australian Financial Review reports. The PM’s visit, which also involved three cabinet members, follows his trips to Queensland, the Northern Territory and Western Australia last week.
In its coverage, the AFR quotes Redbridge pollster Kos Samaras as saying: “Labor is spending mid-January in the states that won’t have many seats in play. Albanese must hold Lyons, but otherwise all roads lead to NSW and Victoria — that is the big arena where the election will be decided.”
ON A LIGHTER NOTE…
On Tuesday I asked you to take a look at Kiwi the cute rescue puppy.
Today I’d like to draw your attention to Brodie, a dog rescued from a Canadian shelter by photographer Amanda Richter.
Brodie has a crooked snout, is blind in one eye and has a partially shut jaw after his mother, a 10-month-old stray, bit him on the head when he was two weeks old, The Washington Post reports.
Followers of the shelter’s social media accounts had formed a soft spot for Brodie and after Richter adopted him, asked her for updates.
You can guess what happened next.
Brodie, who is now almost 6 years old, has 1.6 million followers on Instagram and TikTok combined. “I think people feel the same way that I felt when I first saw his pictures. They see how loved he is even though he’s so different, and it makes them feel good,” Richter said.
And the story doesn’t end there. A few years ago, the photographer was alerted to a female dog with a crooked snout at a rescue centre in Texas. And you guessed right again, she adopted that one too.
Go on, go take a look at the pictures of the cuties Brodie and Raven.
Say What?
There’s a real opportunity in the next parliament, with all of the commentators predicting a minority government, to have a golden era of progressive reform.
Adam Bandt
Speaking to Guardian Australia, the Greens leader also claimed a minority parliament which kept “Peter Dutton out” could “set the country up for generations”.
CRIKEY RECAP
How to end what is a quantifiable perversion of fiscal policy, costing tens of billions of dollars, by a state controlled by deeply malignant and corrupt economic and political actors? Labor’s and the Coalition’s betrayal of good policy is driven by their fear of losing WA seats. Subjecting them to the same fear in eastern states is the only answer: voters need to turn on major party incumbents and replace them with community independents, establishing an even bigger crossbench, eliminating the possibility of majority governments and turning far more seats into marginals that the major parties will have to work hard to hold.
Half a dozen seats up for grabs in Western Australia will be dwarfed by dozens of seats at risk in the eastern states with voters tired of a tax system skewed in favour of fossil fuel giants and special deals for politically sensitive areas.
The hilarious claim advanced by major party politicians and their media shills is that only majority government delivers stability and sensible policy. The poison Western Australia has injected into the federal budget is the perfect illustration of the silliness of that argument. There are no benefits any longer in having majority governments in Australia. And certainly not fiscal benefits.
“And my final message is somewhat cliche, but nevertheless important. The standard you walk past is the standard you accept. If you see something, say something. This will only remain a good place to work if you make it so.”
Crikey understands that [departing Guardian Australia chief political correspondent Paul] Karp was not referring to any individuals in referencing Murphy’s quote, but referring to media industry culture generally and to safe systems of work.
The departures leave Guardian Australia’s Canberra bureau facing significant change ahead of an imminent federal election. [Former political reporter Amy] Remeikis has been replaced by former ABC reporter Krishani Dhanji, while the foreign affairs and defence role remains unfilled and the ad for Karp’s replacement is still open.
Asked about the ongoing sausage party that is the parliamentary Liberal Party, Peter Dutton made a valuable point: it’s no-one’s fault that the women trying to become Liberal candidates keep objectively being not as good as men:
“In our party, we have a democratically based process where our members make decisions about who the candidates will be. In the Labor Party, the faceless union bosses decide who will be the candidates.
“Ours is a much more democratic process. Of course, we want to see more women running in seats, and we have got some incredible candidates.”
Women make up about 30% of the party’s federal MPs and senators (compared to 52% of Labor seats held by women). In the case of the seven retiring Libs at the coming election, only one is being replaced by a woman to run in 2025.
This has been a perennial issue for the men who run the Liberal Party. They wish — oh how they wish! — they could get more women elected as MPs. But they are quite literally powerless to do anything about it!
READ ALL ABOUT IT
TikTok prepares for immediate shut-off in the US on Sunday (The Information) ($)
S Korea impeached president arrested after investigators scale walls (BBC)
AUKUS pact keeping Chinese leader Xi Jinping up at night, Republican claims (ABC)
The king of Ozempic is scared as hell (WIRED)
The world’s largest human gathering begins in India (The New York Times) ($)
Sydney train chaos could get worse Thursday (AFR)
THE COMMENTARIAT
Biden’s legacy: Bad or worse? — Carlos Lozada, Ross Douthat and Michelle Cottle (The New York Times):
Douthat: My expectation is that there are two scenarios. In Scenario A, Donald Trump’s second term is either similar to his first term or perceived as more successful. And in that world, Biden will be regarded as this kind of semi-senile embodiment of a failing liberalism that ultimately couldn’t reckon with Donald Trump’s transformative populism. That’s not a good judgment.
In Scenario B, Donald Trump is an authoritarian nightmare, the likes of which some people expect. In that scenario, Joe Biden is the semi-senile guy who failed to stop an authoritarian nightmare from coming to America. So in Scenario A he’s a last figure of a failing consensus who then shuffles off the stage. That’s pretty bad. And in Scenario B he’s like James Buchanan or Franklin Pierce, the last presidents before a total disaster for America. So if Trump succeeds in any way, Biden looks quite bad, and if Trump is a nightmare, then Biden looks even worse.
Election will test what voters care about the most — John Kehoe (AFR): Today, the recent disinflationary signs have raised hopes that unemployment may be able to sustainably remain below the RBA’s “guestimate” of full employment of 4.5%.
While that may be the case, it is too soon to declare victory given the labour market remains tight, labour productivity is stagnant at 2016 levels and inflation continues to be sticky.
The ultimate conclusion of whether Australia can run a lower unemployment rate while putting a lid on inflation will not only be a lesson for economic policymakers.
Ultimately, the election result will reveal to elected politicians how much voters hate inflation.
