Betting on the Super Bowl MVP is one of the most exciting wagers of the year, but is it the smartest bet on the board? With dozens of prop bets available—from player stats to game outcomes—finding the best value requires a deep analysis of the odds, trends, and risk factors involved. Should bettors focus on the MVP market or explore alternative props with potentially better returns? Let’s break down the numbers and assess where the best value lies.
The Case for Betting on the Super Bowl MVP
Super Bowl MVP betting is straightforward: pick the player you believe will have the biggest impact on the game. Historically, quarterbacks dominate this award, winning roughly 55% of all Super Bowl MVP trophies. This trend makes sense—signal-callers touch the ball on nearly every offensive play and often dictate the game’s outcome.
However, while quarterbacks are the safest MVP bets, their odds typically reflect this. For example, Patrick Mahomes might be listed at +130 to win, whereas a star defensive player or running back could have odds of +1000 or higher. The potential for a bigger payout exists, but only if an unexpected performance shifts the narrative.
Wide receivers and defensive players have stuck their hand in the air in recent Super Bowls, with Cooper Kupp winning MVP in 2022 and Von Miller taking the honor in 2016. While rare, these outcomes show that betting on a non-QB can be profitable—if the game plays out in a way that highlights their contributions.
The challenge with MVP betting is that the award is narrative-driven. A quarterback can have an average performance but still win if no one else stands out. If you’re placing an MVP bet, consider the storyline that could develop and whether it favors your pick.
Comparing MVP Betting to Other Super Bowl Props
Super Bowl prop bets offer an alternative approach with different risk-reward structures. Rather than betting on a single player to be recognized as the game’s MVP, prop bets allow you to wager on specific in-game events or player performances.
Player Props: Safer and More Predictable
Player prop bets, such as total passing yards, rushing yards, or touchdowns, provide more control over the wager. Unlike the MVP market, where only one player wins, these bets allow multiple outcomes to hit. For example:
- Jalen Hurts Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (-130)
- Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing TDs (+150)
Each of these bets is independent of the MVP voting process, making them more predictable based on statistical trends and matchup analysis. For those looking to refine their strategy, checking top NFL props and predictions on FanDuel can provide valuable insights. Platforms like FanDuel break down player trends, historical performances, and expert predictions, helping bettors identify the best-value plays ahead of Super Bowl 2025.
Team-Based Props: Lower Risk, More Strategic
An alternative is betting on team-based props, such as total points, first-quarter scoring, or specific team performances. These bets remove the uncertainty of individual player performances and instead focus on broader game outcomes. Examples include:
- Team to Score First (-110)
- Total Points Over/Under (49.5)
- First Scoring Play: Touchdown vs. Field Goal (+EV value)
Because these wagers don’t depend on a single player’s performance or the MVP selection process, they tend to offer more stability. They also allow for hedge betting, where you can place multiple smaller wagers to minimize risk.
Exotic Props: High Variance, Big Payouts
Super Bowl betting also features more unique props, such as:
- Coin Toss Result (-105 both sides)
- Length of the National Anthem
- Gatorade Color of the Winning Coach’s Bath (+500 or more on certain colors)
While these bets are fun, they carry high variance with little predictive value. If you’re developing a serious betting strategy, these novelty bets shouldn’t be your focus.
Where’s the Best Value?
Ultimately, the best value depends on your risk tolerance and betting goals. Here’s how the options stack up:
MVP Betting: Offers high upside for non-quarterbacks but is narrative-driven and difficult to predict.
Player Props: More consistent and easier to analyze based on performance trends.
Team Props: Lower risk, focusing on overall game flow rather than individual performance.
Exotic Props: Fun but unpredictable, best suited for casual bettors.
If you’re aiming for a long-shot payday, betting on a wide receiver or defensive player for MVP could be a smart move. If you prefer a more data-driven sports betting approach, player and team props provide better reliability.
You be You – But do the Research
Super Bowl MVP betting is exciting, but it isn’t always the best value on the board. While quarterbacks remain the safest choices, alternative props often present better opportunities for consistent wins. Whether you’re targeting player performance bets, team-based props, or a mix of both, focusing on statistical trends and matchup analysis will give you the best shot at success. Before placing your wagers, consider your risk tolerance and choose the bets that align with your strategy.
