Egg prices in the US have risen steeply over the last several weeks. Experts say they are likely to climb further as an avian flu outbreak decimates flocks across the country.
Though the avian flu has been in the US since 2022, the largest outbreak started in October and is still affecting millions of hens. About 14.7 million egg-producing chickens have been affected by the avian flu since the start of January, surpassing the number of hens affected in all of 2023, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
“Based on the amount of birds that we have lost in the last few months, and the hen population, there just isn’t enough production to support the amount of demand that we have,” said Karyn Rispoli, managing director of eggs at the price-tracking firm Expana. “We’re at a point now where we’re truly in a shortage.”
In December the number of table eggs produced fell 4.5% compared with the same period last year, according to the USDA. With more hens infected with the avian flu in January, the number of eggs will probably continue to drop.
The avian flu is specifically affecting hens that produce table eggs as they are kept alive longer than broiler chickens, which are used for meat, making them more susceptible to infection during their lifetime. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says that human infections of the avian flu are rare.
The wholesale price of a dozen large eggs has been climbing as much as 40 cents a week as farmers struggle to produce enough eggs to keep up with demand. As of 24 January, the wholesale price of a dozen large eggs was $7.24 in New York, $6.84 in the midwest and $8.35 in California.
But consumers often end up paying a different price at the store. Many grocery stores sell eggs at prices lower than their wholesale cost, taking a loss to ensure customers come back to the store for other items. Though average wholesale prices in mid-January were around $5.80, the average price of eggs in stores was just above $4 – up from around $2.50 a year ago.
Still, people are starting to see prices increase in some stores. Videos on social media show people shocked at seeing $15 cartons of eggs. “I’m going to have to start reselling,” one TikTok user jokes in a video.
Higher egg prices especially affect restaurants and bakeries, which often have to buy eggs wholesale.
“We’re known for our French macarons … and also these big stuffed cookies that are filled with cheesecake or Nutella – all items that are egg-heavy,” said Henry Crawford, co-owner of Sugar Bakery, which he runs with his wife, Ela, in Santa Cruz, California. The bakery uses about 800 eggs a week for its desserts. Sixty eggs used to cost about $13 for the business, but over the last several weeks the price has shot up to $19.
“It’s making the margins a lot smaller,” Crawford said, adding that it’s difficult to raise prices for customers. “People become accustomed to paying a certain price.”
Many Americans might feel a sense of deja vu as they read the price labels on egg shelves at the grocery store. Egg prices shot up in December 2022, after an earlier outbreak of avian flu, but eventually came back down after demand cooled following the holiday season.
But this year, prices have yet to fall. “Retail demand in January hasn’t really let up all that much,” Rispoli said. People have “gotten used to higher egg prices, so it’s not really acting as a deterrent”.
Ending the current avian flu outbreak will be tough. Egg producers have been lobbying the federal government to help fund vaccine research and biosecurity to address the outbreak. The virus can spread from wild birds to domestic hens, and while the disease is known to spread from bird-to-bird contact, scientists are still unsure whether infections are airborne.
If a single chicken in a flock is infected, the whole flock becomes at risk of infection. Orders for new chicks can take up to a year and a half to be fulfilled, meaning it is unclear when the number of egg-producing hens will get back to normal levels.
Egg prices may become a sticky political point as Donald Trump and a Republican majority return to Washington. When a reporter asked the White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, about the rising cost of eggs on Wednesday, Leavitt blamed the Biden administration for high prices.
“This is an example of why it’s so incredibly important that the Senate moves swiftly to confirm all of President Trump’s nominees,” she said.
