Brazil’s financial markets face a quieter day domestically with no major economic releases scheduled. However, the global financial landscape will continue to influence local markets through several key international events that could shape fiscal and monetary policy expectations.
Globally, in the United States, Core Durable Goods Orders and Durable Goods Orders for December will be released at 8:30 AM, offering insights into manufacturing activity which could influence commodity demand and Brazil’s export outlook.
In Europe, ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech at 12:00 PM (CET) could provide further clues on monetary policy direction, possibly affecting global risk sentiment, particularly amid ongoing discussions about ECB’s future rate decisions.
From Asia, Japan’s CPI data at 2:00 AM along with BoJ Core CPI (YoY) at 12:00 AM will be crucial for understanding inflationary pressures, influencing the yen’s value which can have ripple effects on global markets.
The Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from Japan at 8:50 PM will offer insights into past policy decisions. Australia’s CPI data at 7:30 PM will also be significant for gauging inflation trends, potentially impacting the AUD/BRL exchange rate.
Economic Agenda for January 28, 2025
Brazil
The Americas
United States (USD)
- 8:30 AM – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec)
- 8:30 AM – Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec)
- 9:00 AM – S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Nov)
- 9:00 AM – S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Nov)
- 10:00 AM – CB Consumer Confidence (Jan)
- 10:30 AM – Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)
- 1:00 PM – 7-Year Note Auction
- 4:30 PM – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
Europe
Eurozone (EUR)
- 12:00 PM – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
China
- All Day – Holiday – Chinese New Year
Japan (JPY)
- 2:00 AM – CPI
- 12:00 AM – BoJ Core CPI (YoY)
- 8:50 PM – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
South Korea
- All Day – Holiday – Korean New Year
Hong Kong
- All Day – Holiday – Chinese New Year (Early close at 12:00)
Australia (AUD)
- 7:30 PM – CPI (YoY) (Q4)
- 7:30 PM – CPI (QoQ) (Q4)
- 7:30 PM – Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) (Q4)
Holidays - China, South Korea, Hong Kong – Lunar New Year, leading to reduced Asian market liquidity.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
Brazil’s Ibovespa index closed at 124,861.50 points on Monday, January 27, 2025. The benchmark surged 1.97%, reaching its highest level this year. This impressive gain came despite the negative sentiment in New York’s stock markets.
Investors focused on the upcoming ‘Super Wednesday’ when both the Brazilian and U.S. central banks will announce interest rate decisions. The market largely expects Brazil’s Selic rate to increase by 100 basis points from its current 12.25%.
The U.S. dollar closed lower against the Brazilian real for the sixth consecutive day. This decline comes amid position unwinding following news of artificial intelligence progress in China.
The dollar ended trading at R$ 5.9133, down 0.09% against the real. This performance aligns with the global trend
U.S. Markets Yesterday
Wall Street’s superstars are tumbling as a competitor from China threatens to upend the artificial-intelligence frenzy they’ve been feasting on. The S&P 500 fell 1.5% Monday. Big Tech stocks took some of the heaviest losses, with Nvidia down nearly 17%, and they dragged the Nasdaq composite down 3.1%.
Besides chip companies, utilities hoping to electrify power-hungry AI data centers also tumbled. Stocks outside of AI-related industries held up much better, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%. A Chinese company called DeepSeek said it had developed a large language model that can compete with U.S. giants at perhaps a fraction of the cost.
- The S&P 500 fell 88.96 points, or 1.5%, to 6,012.28.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 289.33 points, or 0.7%, to 44,713.58.
- The Nasdaq composite fell 612.47 points, or 3.1%, to 19,341.83.
- The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 23.71 points, or 1%, to 2,284.02.
Commodity Markets
Oil Prices
Oil prices tumbled as global economic concerns mount, reflecting broader market anxieties.
Gold Prices
Gold prices were down as the Fed meeting looms and concerns about Chinese demand grow, impacting safe-haven investments.
Bitcoin Prices
Bitcoin surged past $103,000 as ETF dynamics shift, showing resilience amidst regulatory changes.
Companies and Markets
Brazilian consumer confidence plunged to a two-year low, signaling potential impacts on domestic spending.
WEG shares felt the DeepSeek shockwave, highlighting the global tech rivalry’s effects on local markets.
Brazilians lose faith in Lula’s economic promises, which could influence market sentiment further.
The Diniz family weighs an exit from Carrefour, potentially shaking up Brazil’s retail sector. Read more…
Argentina’s M&A market is set for remarkable growth in 2025, offering insights into regional economic trends. Read more…
São Paulo’s consumer prices inched up amidst economic shifts, affecting local inflation expectations. Read more…
Brazilian automakers fight back with an antidumping case against Chinese EV giants, indicating protectionist measures in the auto industry. Read more…
Outlook
With no domestic economic releases today, the focus will be on how global economic indicators and policy speeches from key figures like Lagarde influence market sentiment. Investors will be particularly attentive to U.S. consumer confidence and durable goods orders for signs of economic health, which could impact emerging markets like Brazil.
The holiday closures in Asia might lead to reduced trading volumes, potentially amplifying reactions to U.S. data. The Brazilian real’s performance will be closely watched as investors adjust to these global cues.
