Anthony Albanese faces a fight to secure a second term in the Lodge, with the federal government trailing the opposition in one of the first major polls of an election year.
Latest polling by YouGov, provided to AAP, showed the coalition leading Labor 51 per cent to 49 on a two-party preferred basis.
In its January survey, the YouGov figures showed the coalition increasing its lead over the government by 0.5 percentage points compared with November.
But it’s not all bad news for the prime minister, with Mr Albanese still in front as preferred prime minister compared with Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.
Just months out from a federal election that must be held by May 17, Labor’s primary vote has increased from 30 per cent in November to 32 per cent.
The opposition’s primary share has also risen slightly from 38 per cent to 39 per cent in the same period.
Support for the Greens has gone backward from 13 per cent to 12 per cent while backing for One Nation has fallen from nine per cent to seven per cent.
Voters backing other candidates such as independents remained steady at 10 per cent.
YouGov’s director of polling Amir Daftari said while primary support had remained stable for the government, its drop in support on a two-party level had been months in the making.
“While the results are too close to make a definitive call, Labor’s two-party preferred vote has been on a downward trend since July last year,” he said.
“This decline is driven by a rising coalition primary vote and lower preferences from minor party voters to Labor across the board.”
Labor was in front of the coalition 52 per cent to 48 per cent at the start of 2024, but its margin has been chipped away following voter concern over cost-of-living and inflation pressures.
The polling has shown bright spots for the prime minister, with Mr Albanese leading Mr Dutton 44 per cent to 40 per cent as preferred leader.
Mr Dutton’s rating has risen in the past 12 months – from the 35 per cent in January 2024.
Mr Albanese has gained some ground for his personal satisfaction rating, with 40 per cent voters approving how he has been handling his role – up from 36 per cent in November.
However, 55 per cent disapprove of his performance.
Mr Albanese’s net satisfaction stands at minus 15, up slightly from minus 20 in November.
The opposition leader’s net satisfaction was minus six in the January poll, with 43 per cent approving and 49 per cent cent disapproving his performance.
Mr Albanese has yet to visit the governor-general to set an election date.
However, both major party leaders have been spending the first weeks of 2025 in pseudo-campaign mode, visiting marginal electorates and announcing local campaign promises.
The survey polled 1504 people between January 9 and 15.
