The Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) reported that the national economy likely closed 2024 with a growth of 3.2%. This forecast follows a challenging year in 2023, where Peru faced a recession with a contraction of 0.4%.
However, November’s data from the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI) revealed a promising increase of 3.93% in economic activity. In October, three out of fourteen evaluated sectors experienced contraction.
In November, the mining and hydrocarbons sector fell by 2.19%, construction dropped by 2.40%, and the financial and insurance sectors decreased by 2.14%.
Despite these declines, other sectors showed significant growth. Agriculture surged by 12.41%, and fishing rebounded with a remarkable increase of 17.57%.
The Ministry of Agrarian Development and Irrigation had already indicated that this agricultural growth represented an accumulated expansion of 4.5% from January to November.
Additionally, data from the Ministry of Production (Produce) revealed that manufacturing grew by 6.7% in November, marking five consecutive months of growth. Consequently, the industrial sector achieved an overall increase of 3.03% for the first eleven months of 2024.
Economic Growth Projections and Challenges
These results contributed to an overall Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increase of 3.11% from January to November last year. This aligns closely with projections for the end of 2024.
Looking ahead, the BCRP‘s recent estimates indicate that the economy will close 2024 with a growth rate of 3.2%. Earlier in August, the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) revised its growth projection upward from 3.1% to 3.2% for the same year.
This revision was made through the Multiannual Macroeconomic Framework for 2025-2028. Despite these optimistic forecasts, José Arista, the Minister of Economy and Finance, emphasized the need for higher growth rates than just 3%.
He highlighted the urgency to address labor market demands, as approximately 350,000 new young individuals enter each year. This is compounded by migration pressures and persistent unemployment challenges.
