Thune tries to fend off Trump intervention in Senate leader race

In repeated TV interviews, Thune has asked that Trump not endorse any of the three candidates running to replace GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY).

Thune is perceived as the marginal front-runner in that contest, given his role as McConnell’s deputy, but Trump’s involvement could shape the race in unpredictable ways.

“Obviously if he wants to, he could exert a considerable amount of influence on that,” Thune said on CNBC Thursday. “But honestly I think my preference would be, and I think it’s probably in his best interest to stay out of that.”

“Frankly, I think if he lets it play out, we’ll get the right person,” Thune said in a Wednesday interview on Fox News.

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The race, to be held next Wednesday, is an internal affair. Both Thune and his chief competitor, Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), have been holding regular conversations with their GOP colleagues since McConnell announced his retirement from leadership in February.

The third competitor, Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), has begun to consolidate a bloc of Republicans who are demanding reforms in exchange for their vote.

Still, the prospect of Trump influencing the process has been ever-present since he locked up the nomination earlier this year.

Thune endorsed Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), one of Trump’s competitors in the primary, but has since attempted to repair their relationship.

He visited Mar-a-Lago in March and has “regularly communicated” with him in the months that followed, according to a source familiar with the discussions. The two spoke last week and on Wednesday, the day Trump clinched a second term in office.

“There’s only one person in the race that President Trump just absolutely does not get along with,” said Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK), who is supporting Thune next week. “But Thune and him are in a good place.”

Mullin declined to elaborate on if he was referring to Cornyn or Scott.

Thune is not uniquely vulnerable because of his rocky past with Trump. Cornyn, too, once called for the Republican Party to chart a different course after Trump’s 2020 loss.

But Cornyn has been more vocal in realigning himself with Trump, pledging this week to “Make America Great Again by making the Senate work again.” In October, Cornyn appeared with Trump at events in Texas and Nevada.

The implication of Thune’s pleas is that a Trump endorsement would not necessarily cut his way. In 2022, Trump endorsed Rick Scott, who is again asking for Trump’s support.

But Thune and his allies have been making the case to Trump that an endorsement is not in his own self-interest. The leader race is conducted by secret ballot, limiting his sway over the process, and if his favored candidate loses, Trump risks bad blood before he’s even stepped foot in the Oval Office.

“At the end of the day, he’s going to do what he needs to do, but whoever the leader is, he’s going to have to work with him,” Mullin said of Trump, who is soliciting feedback from within the party. “And that’s what I told him.”

Trump had limited impact on the 2022 leader race. Scott only walked away with 10 votes in his challenge to McConnell, coming from a base of conservative Republicans he was already likely to have in his corner.

But Trump’s standing within the party is now much stronger. He not only won a second term in the White House, but helped elected incoming members who rode his coattails to victory on Election Day.

The thrust of Cornyn’s pitch is that he and Trump got along during his first term in office. Cornyn, then the Senate majority whip, helped usher through tax cuts and the confirmation of multiple Supreme Court justices.

“As I told President Trump, I’m interested in getting the band back together again,” he said on Fox News.

But Cornyn could be at a structural disadvantage given he was term-limited out of the whip job. When McConnell suffered a concussion last year, forcing him to be absent from the Senate, Thune temporarily took the reins.

“I liked what John did and how he handled himself when Mitch wasn’t able to be there,” said Mullin. “We really got to see a true leadership style at that point, and I think it impressed a lot of members at the time.”

Mullin told the Washington Examiner he conveyed that perspective to Trump.

Cornyn has emphasized more than his prior tenure in leadership. His years as a prolific fundraiser for Senate Republicans have become another factor in the race.

Both Thune and Cornyn have raised tens of millions for their colleagues this cycle as they seek to fill McConnell’s shoes.

Meanwhile, Cornyn has shown a greater willingness to compromise with the Senate’s more conservative members should Scott lose.

Mullin, who has had multiple conversations with Trump on the leadership race, expressed uncertainty over whether he will ultimately decide to insert himself. The Trump campaign has not responded to a request for comment on Thune’s remarks

But Mullin judged that his own support, plus that of Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), will help Thune on Wednesday. Both are close allies of Trump, while Daines, as chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has strong relationships with the incoming senators.

“Ultimately, it’s John’s race, but it definitely helps,” said Mullin.

The leadership race is thought to be a dead heat between Thune and Cornyn given that neither has signaled he has enough votes to win. Nearly all members of the Senate GOP conference remain publicly uncommitted.

But Mullin said there was a “real possibility” that Thune wins on the first ballot. A simple majority is needed, meaning 27 GOP votes.

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“It wouldn’t surprise me at all,” he said.

To this point, conventional wisdom has been that the race will require two, with Scott being eliminated in the first round.