Who’s Gonna Win? – The Big Picture

Over the past few weeks, clients, reporters, friends, and family have frequently asked this.

Who’s Gonna Win? is a loaded question for anyone. We all live in our happy little bias bubbles. I work in NYC, a Democratic stronghold, but I also live in Nassau County, which leans GOP.

Any strong opinion as to the outcome is a mix of selective perception, bias, and wishful thinking.

I have been warning readers that polls are notoriously unreliable and that the media’s fixation on them is poor journalism, lazy, and uninformative. The news media has not served us well this cycle; Jay Rosen, the NYU professor and media critic describes a more useful focus as “not the odds, but the stakes.”

Rather than merely opine a preference, let’s war game a range of outcomes.

Before buying, selling, or shorting a stock, before increasing your equity exposure or moving to cash, I like to make the counterargument: What is the person on the other side of your trade thinking? Each side believes its position is correct—why? What are the best arguments Pro & Con, the strongest claims, Bull & Bear?

Picture each trade after-the-fact as winning or losing: Why do you imagine it succeeded or failed? What are you anticipating? What don’t you know? It is a useful moot court exercise, no matter the subject, to help you become more fully informed about the probabilities of success as well as the nuances in any position.

We can do the same in this race. Imagine both candidates winning (or losing) and crafting an explanation for why. I can imagine at least ten factors for each candidate leading to their victory.

Why Trump Wins (in order of importance)

1. Inflation ran amuck this admin (not during his term)
2. Illegal Immigration: Biden-Harris did nothing to stop it!
3. Economy during Trump’s first term was great!
4. Reduce Tax burden and cut onerous regulations
5. Harris is untested; she has no accomplishments;
6. Candidate did not go through the primary vetting process
7. Biden remains unpopular (37% approval)
8. State-level control of abortion decisions
9. Ukraine is an expensive folly; War in Gaza is a threat to Israel
10. Afghanistan pull-out was a debacle

What does this scenario look like?

Trump ran a dark campaign that resonated with his core supporters. The two assassination attempts gave him a heroic aura, the candidate of destiny. He won lots of traditional Democratic blue-collar support. The “Vibecession” is still fresh in voters’ minds.

This all shows up as cracks in the Dem’s blue wall in the Midwest; the Trump campaign eked out a victory in Michigan and held onto North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, and they capture 277 EC votes and the White House; add in Nevada and Pennsylvania, and it’s a sweep at 312 electoral college votes, and likely both Houses in Congress.

This electoral college map goes this way:

Source: 270 to Win

~~~

Why Harris Wins (in order of importance)

1. Reproductive Rights (Roe v Wade overturn)
2. January 6^th was a criminal attempt to overturn a free and fair election
3. More tax cuts for corporations and billionaires
4. Trump is uniquely unfit for office (another chaos presidency?)
5. 78-year-old candidate is less vigorous + showing signs of cognitive decline
6. Voting rights need to be protected
7. Trump will pack federal courts with even more right-wing ideologues
8. Prior admin did a terrible job managing the pandemic; US had much worse outcomes than other countries
9. Convicted felon running to avoid jail, not to do the people’s business (e.g., stopped an immigration bill to prevent opponent “win”)
10. Trump left office as the least popular president in history (29% approval); his cabinet mostly refused to endorse him

What does this scenario look like?

Harris ran an optimistic, upbeat campaign; she has a historic gender gap in her favor and lots of new registered voters. Late breaking undecideds (!) went her way; she won some Republican voters who voted a split ticket; a measurable percentage (eg., 1-5%) of GOP voters stayed home.

Her biggest advantages were 1) Record-breaking sum of campaign dollars; 2) Inheriting a strong infrastructure from Biden, then making it even better. The get out the vote effort made a difference in swing states: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and made southern swing states of Georgia, North Carolina Nevada and Arizona competitive.

The Harris campaign needed to only hold onto Dem’s blue wall in the Midwest and they capture 270 EC votes and the White House. Throw in Georgia and Nevada for 292 EC votes, and likely the House of Representatives; if North Carolina and Arizona break her way, you get a clean sweep at 319 electoral college votes.

This electoral college map goes this way:

Source: 270 to Win

The most likely scenario is in between the two extremes; if either sweep occurs, it suggest a major realignment and a significant “change” election.

I already voted, and went off smooth as silk. Let’s hope for the same is true for the rest of the country.

See also:
Undecided By David Sedaris (October 20, 2008)

Previously:
Where Might Consensus Be Wrong? (October 29, 2024)

Bad Polling is a Behavioral Problem (October 6, 2024)

Another Reason Why Polling is So Bad (August 15, 2024)

Nobody Knows Anything, 2023 Polling Edition (November 8, 2023)

How to Have a Financial Debate (November 5, 2018)

Predictions & Forecasts

Dem Sweep

GOP Sweep