As every church leader knows, what’s happening in your church is, to some extent, a reflection of what’s going on in the culture. And when it comes to church attendance statistics and patterns, culture is changing rapidly.
Heading into 2025, there are 5 attendance trends that are worth every church leader’s attention, especially those hoping to see their church reach more people and grow.
First, the bad news. Then, some really promising trends that not only keep hope alive, but have some churches seeing momentum.
Factors Contributing to the Decline in Church Attendance
There’s no surprise here, but as we’ll see below, the overall trends in church attendance are not encouraging: people are leaving the church.
Church membership has been in decline for decades, and along with it has been a similar downward trend in church attendance.
The reason, of course, is that America is increasingly becoming a post-Christian culture. Since the 1990s, according to Pew Research, the number of Americans who have identified themselves as atheists, agnostics, or no reli (the Nones) has risen from 8% to 29% of the population.
Even more shockingly, as recently as the 1990s, 90% of Americans identified as Christians. In 2023, that number fell to just 63% as the religiously unaffiliated surged.
And, of course, the younger you are, the less likely you are to consider yourself Christian and the more likely you are to identify as religiously unaffiliated.
The impact of this cultural trend on church attendance has been a direct hit.
Millennial Attendance is Up 18%, but Boomer Attendance is Down
One of the most interesting trends in the 2020s is the surge in Millennial attendance.
While Boomer attendance is on the decline, in part due to the fact that Boomers are aging, it would be easy to imagine that no one is there to take their place.
Fortunately, that’s not entirely the case. Millennial attendance has grown over the last few years, and, in particular, non-white Millennial attendance has surged.
39% of Millennials report attending church weekly, up from 21% in 2019 (Barna). That’s a significant boost.
Non-white Millennials drive the increase in church attendance. 45% of non-white Millennials are attending church weekly, compared to 35% of white Millennials (Barna).
The troubling statistic, as many pastors experienced post-COVID, is that Boomers are more likely than ever to be dropping out. While 13% of Millennials said they have stopped attending church entirely post-COVID, 22% of Boomers said they had quit church entirely (online and in person).
While Boomers are aging, quitting church entirely suggests something else is going on.
The shift from Boomer leadership in the church to Millennial and Gen Z leadership needs to happen faster than ever if the church is going to be strong. It appears that it’s underway.
Non-Denominational Churches Are Gaining Momentum
While many denominations struggle with momentum, nondenominational churches are seeing noticeable growth.
6.5 million more people are attending a nondenominational church in the 2020s than in 2010 (US Religion Census).
Reasons for this vary, but I have a few theories that might help explain this trend.
First, church plants are more likely to be non-denominational, and new churches tend to have more momentum than many existing churches.
Second, with the move to a post-Christian culture, many church attenders and unchurched people see non-denominational as an advantage. It’s both a sign of unity (attractive to the unchurched) and a break from the past for adults looking for a new experience as they grow up.
Finally, the organizations with a mission to support churches that have sprung up in the last few decades (everything from Exponential, ARC, Acts 29, Irresistible Church Network, The Art of Leadership Academy, Gloo, Life.Church Open Network, and Grow Leader) provide more robust training and equipping than traditional denominations. The default, it seems, has toggled to non-denominational or intra-denominational support.
Regular Attendance is Being Redefined: 30% Consider ‘Regular’ Attendance to be Twice a Month
For decades now, pastors have asked what ‘regular’ church attendance means. It’s a great question.
While that will vary from pastor to pastor, 30% of pastors consider ‘regular attendance’ to mean attending church at least twice a month.
16% of pastors still consider once-a-week attendance the required threshold for regular attendance (Lifeway Research).
What’s interesting is that church members themselves (many of whom are attending less often than they used to) have a stricter definition of regular church attendance than pastors do. In fact, 59% of members say “regular attendance” means attending church once a week or more (Lifeway Research).
It will be interesting to see how this perception evolves as online options continue to multiply and lifestyles become even more mobile. Either way, defining what meaningful participation in a church means continues to evolve.
The Stable Church Is Disappearing: 33% of Churches Report That They’re Growing, While 54% Are Declining
While many church leaders are perpetual optimists, and self-reported data can be misleading, 33% of church leaders report that their congregation is experiencing “some growth” or “significant growth.”
While I don’t have precise data to show for my next observation, in talking to hundreds of church leaders, I see that some churches are really struggling a few years after COVID, while others are growing quickly. In other words, the growth is not only not evenly distributed, but it’s also accelerating the expansion of a relatively small number of churches.
The findings of this study seem to suggest a similar trend. 54% of churches are reporting some or ‘much’ decline.
In other words, churches that have momentum are gaining even more momentum, while churches that don’t have momentum are losing people just as quickly.
So what does this mean?
My take is that the church is going through a period of consolidation. Not all the growth among rapidly growing churches is conversion growth. Much of it is Christians finding a church that suits them better.
The pandemic shook things up significantly. People broke longstanding patterns of where they attended church. Many moved. Still others changed jobs. And when people plugged back in in 2022 and beyond, they plugged back in differently, often finding churches that had momentum rather than going back to their old church, which might not have had the same offerings.
The caveat is that even if your church is experiencing significant growth, it’s important not to neglect the task of reaching unchurched people. Attracting other Christians doesn’t fulfill your mission. Reaching people for Christ fulfills your mission.
Meantime, 54% of churches report that they’re experiencing some decline to ‘much’ decline. Only 12% report being stable.
The bottom line? You’re either growing or declining. Stable isn’t happening much anymore in a rapidly changing culture.
The Culture Wars Are Redefining How Christians Think of Themselves: 48% of US Adults Say There is Conflict Between Their Beliefs and Mainstream American Culture
Whatever you want to call the emerging divide between US Christians and US culture (I’ve used the term culture wars), American Christians are feeling a bigger gap between what they value and what the culture values than ever.
48% of U.S. adults say there’s “a great deal” of or “some” conflict between their religious beliefs and mainstream American culture, up from 42% in 2020. That’s a meaningful jump in just a few years.
In a similar vein, 29% say they think of themselves as religious minorities, up from 24% in 2020.
And while Evangelical views of the culture continue to evolve, secular Americans are growing less favorable in their assessments of Christians.
72% of religiously unaffiliated adults – those who identify religiously as atheist, agnostic, or nothing in particular – say conservative Christians have gone too far in trying to control religion in the government and public schools.
Meanwhile, 63% of Christians say the same about secular liberals.
So, where does this leave us? In a tense place, for sure.
In fact, 41% say it’s best to avoid discussing religion at all if someone disagrees with you, up from 33% in 2019.
So What Does All of This Mean?
Well, a few things.
As America becomes more and more post-Christian, a growing number of churches resistant to change or trying to minister to a culture that no longer exists will struggle and disappear. Add to that an aging clergy, aging congregations, and a lack of young leaders, and the future will have fewer churches than we’ve ever known.
However, the churches that remain will gain momentum.
These churches will tend to be larger, younger, and better-resourced than the churches that are declining and fading away. Naturally, some will be church plants that are tight on resources, but most of today’s vibrant and growing churches were church plants 5, 10, and 20 years ago.
Further, with the divide between church and culture wider than it was even a few years ago, it’s time for some new voices and approaches to help the church (and culture) find a way to interact. This is the world which God so loved, and we need fresh approaches to reaching it.
The culture needs the church more than it ever has before. The seeds for the renewal of the church have already been planted, and some are ready to grow.
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