As Ukraine donor nations meet again, Zelensky says he has only 25% of the air defense he needs

ANOTHER RUSSIAN SHIP SUNK: While fierce fighting continues in the northeast near Kharkiv, where Russia has had some success in taking back territory lost early in the war, Ukraine is punishing Russia in occupied Crimea in the south, using drones and missiles to knock out air defenses and set fuel depots ablaze and over the weekend sinking another Russian warship based at Sevastopol.

“Another bad day for the Russian Black Sea Fleet,” the Ukrainian Defense Ministry posted on X on Sunday. “Overnight, Ukrainian defenders destroyed a Russian minesweeper Project 266M ‘Kovrovets.’ Great job, warriors!”

The Institute for the Study of War cited a “prominent Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger” who claimed Ukraine fired a dozen U.S.-provided long-range ATACMS missiles, of which nine were shot down but three hit the warship that sank.

“We are deterring Russian pressure, and I thank each brigade and unit involved,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on his social media account this morning. “Russia wants to show that it defines the course of the war. Our task is to thwart Russia’s attempt to expand the war and to prevent the occupier from breaking the front line.”

LESSONS FROM THE BATTLE OF THE BLACK SEA

ZELENSKY: ‘WE STOPPED THEM’: In an interview with Agence France-Presse, Zelensky claimed the Russian advance in the Khakinv region has been blunted for now but that he needs more air defense, more troops from Ukraine’s recent mobilization law, and importantly permission from the United States to stop having to fight with one hand behind its back.

“They can fire any weapons from their territory at ours,” Zelensky said. “This is the biggest advantage that Russia has. We can’t do anything to their systems, which are located on the territory of Russia, with Western weapons.”

“They started their operation. It could consist of several waves. There was the first wave, and the situation there is controlled,” Zelensky told Agence France-Presse, but he added he expects Russia to keep pushing to gain territory. “Russian forces are 5 to 10 kilometers from the border to the point where we stopped them. … I won’t say it’s a great success, but we have to be sober and understand that they are going deeper into our territory.”

“I believe that today, we have about 25% of what we need to defend Ukraine. I’m talking about air defense,” Zelensky said. “As for the aircraft, I say this openly: So that Russia does not have air superiority, our fleet should have 120 to 130 modern aircraft. In total, we need this fleet of F-16s in the number I am talking about in order to have parity.” 

At the Pentagon this morning, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. will host a virtual meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in which representatives from nearly 50 nations will discuss getting critical aid to Ukraine. Austin’s opening remarks will be livestreamed at 8 a.m., and Austin and Brown will brief reporters after the session at 12:30 p.m.

UKRAINIAN FORCES ENJOY ARTILLERY SHELL DELIVERY MILESTONE

CAVOLI: ‘I’M CONFIDENT THEY WILL HOLD THE LINE’: On Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin insisted his forces have no intention of attempting to capture Kharkiv, that the Russian move into northeastern Ukraine was solely for the purpose of establishing a buffer zone to stop Ukraine from shelling the Russian border city of Belgorod.

But the assessment from NATO is that Putin’s hesitance is likely more grounded on the inability of his poorly trained troops to conduct a major assault. “The Russians don’t have the numbers necessary to do a strategic breakthrough,” said Gen. Christopher Cavoli, supreme allied commander Europe, after a meeting of NATO military chiefs last week. “More to the point, they don’t have the skill and the capability to do it, to operate at the scale necessary to exploit any breakthrough to strategic advantage.”

Zelensky said as much in his Agence France-Presse interview. “They want to attack, [but] they understand that [attacking] Kharkiv is very difficult. It is a big city, and they understand that we have forces that will fight for a long time,” he said. “They don’t have the forces [for] a full-scale offensive on the capital like the one they had at the beginning of the invasion.”

On CBS News’s Face the Nation on Sunday, former Defense Secretary Robert Gates offered a more sober assessment. “The circumstances in Ukraine right now are quite dire,” he told host Margaret Brennan. “The six-month delay in getting the supplemental passed has been a problem and poses a real crisis.”

“The Russians are moving, not only around Kharkiv but elsewhere along the front. Putin has taken the last six months to a year to rearm, reequip, to recruit,” Gates said. “I’ve read numbers that he’s putting as many as 30,000 new troops a month into Ukraine. They have more troops in Ukraine now, the Russians do, than they did at the beginning of the war.”

PENTAGON INSPECTOR GENERAL WARNS OF UKRAINE’S ‘ENDEMIC CORRUPTION’

Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Stacey Dec. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre

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HAPPENING TODAY: A court in London is expected to rule today whether WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, who published thousands of classified U.S. military documents on the internet more than a decade ago, can be extradited to the United States to stand trials on espionage charges.

The U.S. has provided assurances to the High Court in London that Assange will receive a fair trial, but lawyers for Assange have argued that under the U.S. Espionage Act, he could face the death penalty and questioned if, as an Australian citizen, he would be afforded free speech rights under the First Amendment.

The court could either permit the extradition or allow for another round of appeals.

US TO PULL TROOPS OUT OF NIGER SLOWLY WHILE HOPING FOR A DIFFERENT RESULT: After five days of discussion in the Nigerien capital of Niamey, the Pentagon has agreed to a plan to withdraw all 1,000 U.S. troops from the country by Sept. 15.

The negotiations were concluded over the weekend by Christopher Maier, assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low-intensity conflict, and Lt. Gen. Dagvin Anderson, director of joint force development in the Joint Chiefs of Staff, according to the Pentagon.

“The Nigeriens committed to a number of things, including the ongoing protection of U.S. forces, the agreement to facilitate, including diplomatic clearances and facilitating with force protection, and a whole series of other efforts on their part to help us move safely and rapidly in the withdrawal,” a senior defense official told reporters on a conference call on Sunday.

Following a coup in Niger last year, the country has been ruled by a military junta that has shifted its allegiance more toward Russia and asked both French and U.S. counterterrorism troops to leave the country.

“Obviously, we’re working against the backdrop of [a] much more challenging political situation, but we’re in close contact throughout with the country team here and the ambassador,” the official said. “We have a lengthy history with them going back well over a decade, and working with them over the course of these discussions proved out that that relationship’s very strong.”

“We’re looking forward to future dialogues,” a senior military official said. “They thought it was important to emphasize that they did not see this as the closing of the relationship but that a new relationship needed to be negotiated.” Nigerien military leaders, he said, felt that given the long-standing relationship, “they don’t want to have it completely dissolved.”

SCHUMER’S PLAN TO BLAME GOP FOR INACTION AT BORDER: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) announced plans over the weekend to hold a vote on the bipartisan border bill that was effectively killed when former President Donald Trump opposed it.

“Congressional Republicans and Democrats alike were prepared to join arms and act to secure our nation’s border as part of the national security supplemental. Unfortunately, just as the border proposal was being finalized, former President Trump demanded Congressional Republicans kill the legislation,” Schumer said in a Dear Colleague letter released Sunday. “The former president made clear he would rather preserve the issue for his campaign than solve the issue in a bipartisan fashion.”

“I hope Republicans and Democrats can work together to pass the bipartisan Border Act this coming week,” Schumer wrote in announcing his plan to schedule a vote on the bill this week. “The Border Act overhauls our asylum laws, hires thousands of new border agents, invests in cutting edge technology to stop the flow of fentanyl and gives the President new authorities to close the border,” he said, adding it is “by any objective measure, a tough, serious-minded, and — critically, bipartisan — proposal to secure our border.”

Sen. James Lankford (R-OK), who negotiated the compromise bill on behalf of Senate Republicans at the behest of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), called Schumer’s move a “political ploy” aimed at election-year messaging.

“Instead of us pointing at each other and doing political stunts, let’s solve this. Let’s actually sit down and figure out how we’re going to resolve it,” Lankford said on the Senate floor. “The bill that I worked with Sen. [Chris] Murphy and Sen. [Kyrsten] Sinema on, we’re not going to be able to pass. So let’s find the sections of it that we can pass.”

“If President Biden would enforce the border the same way President Obama did, much less the same way President Trump did, the border would be very different,” he said. “Everybody sees that. Everybody also sees we need a change in the way we do asylum policy. That’s a change that has to be done in Congress. That’s a vote that we have to be able to take.”

SCHUMER REINTRODUCING BIPARTISAN BORDER BILL TO SENATE BUT SHARES DOUBTS OVER CHANCES

THE RUNDOWN: 

Washington Examiner: No sign of life’ at crash site of helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi

Washington Examiner: New Taiwanese president promises to seek stability, despite China threat

Washington Examiner: Air Force National Guard Space Force plan flies in the face of precedent

Washington Examiner: Biden receives cold shoulder from some students at Morehouse College graduation

Washington Examiner: Elise Stefanik denounces Biden holding up Israel aid in speech to Israeli lawmakers

Washington Examiner: Netanyahu obstructing Israeli intelligence officials from meeting with US officials: Report

Washington Examiner: Israeli military recovers bodies of three hostages in Gaza

Washington Examiner: Humanitarian aid gets to Gaza via US-made pier

Washington Examiner: White House: US soldiers protecting Gaza pier will ‘fire back’ if ‘fired upon’

Washington Examiner: Pentagon inspector general warns of Ukraine’s ‘endemic corruption’

Washington Examiner: Ukrainian forces enjoy artillery shell delivery milestone

Washington Examiner: State Department issues travel warning for LGBT Pride celebrations

Washington Examiner: Schumer reintroducing bipartisan border bill to Senate but shares doubts over chances

Washington Examiner: Calls for vaccinating migrants grow amid TB and measles outbreaks in US

Washington Examiner: Tequila scandal expose forced Border Patrol to cancel 100-year anniversary gala 

Washington Examiner: Durbin demands Alito recuse from Trump Supreme Court cases for ‘Stop the Steal’ flag

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Sorry, the US can’t ignore Syria

Washington Examiner: Opinion: The key failures of Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico’s security detail

AP: Iran’s president, foreign minister and others found dead at helicopter crash site

AP: Who is Ebrahim Raisi, Iran’s president 

New York Times: New Star Wars Plan: Pentagon Rushes to Counter Threats in Orbit

Breaking Defense: Space Force Expects First Space Reserve Contracts by Year End

Militarycom: Another Dead End for Airborne Lasers: Air Force Scraps Effort to Mount Directed-Energy Weapon on Fighter Jet

Air & Space Forces Magazine: New Report: Backlogged F-35s Could Take a Year to Deliver

Aviation Week: Italy Could Join Germany, Spain in Making Eurofighter Top-Up Order

Defense One: Made in the USA: Defense Companies Tense as Congress Pressures Them to Buy Domestic

AP: Taiwan’s new President Lai in his inauguration speech urges China to stop its military intimidation

Defense Scoop: Inside the AI-Enabled Pilot That Flew Air Force Secretary Kendall Through a Dogfight

Militarycom: Made in the USA: Defense Companies Tense as Congress Pressures Them to Buy Domestic

Military.com: Marijuana Testing for Recruits Could End Under House’s Must-Pass Defense Policy Bill

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Top NATO Commander Warns of ‘Big Russia Problem for Years to Come’

Breaking Defense: Tired of Being ‘Shock Absorber’ on Inflation, Defense Industry Wants New Protections: AIA Chief

Air & Space Forces Magazine: ‘Bend Minds, Not Metal’: Where Airmen Learn How to Change the Air Force

Air & Space Forces Magazine: New AFSOC Commander, Academy Superintendent, Top Planner All Nominated

Stars and Stripes: Air Force Presents Posthumous Distinguished Flying Cross Medals to 2 Air Commandos Killed in Crash in 2010

The Cipher Brief: Taiwan’s New President Faces China’s Threats and Military Buildup

THE CALENDAR: 

MONDAY | MAY 20

8 a.m. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin delivers opening remarks before a virtual meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contract Group https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events/

9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Exploring the outlook for Taiwan under the Lai administration,” with Elizabeth Freund Larus, Atlantic Council nonresident senior fellow; Lev Nachman, Atlantic Council nonresident fellow; Wen-Ti Sung, Atlantic Council nonresident fellow; and David Shullman, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/exploring-the-outlook-for-taiwan

12 p.m. — Middle East Institute and Freedom House virtual discussion: “U.S. Policy on Iran: Examining the Opportunities to Build a New Bipartisan Strategy,” with Goli Ameri, vice chairwoman of the Freedom House Board of Trustees; Patricia Karam, Freedom House senior policy adviser on Iran; Alex Vatanka, director of the MEI Iran Program; and Brian Katulis, MEI senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy https://www.mei.edu/events/us-policy-iran

12:30 p.m. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. brief reporters at the Pentagon following a virtual meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contract Group https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events/

2 p.m. — Middle East Forum and American Jewish University virtual discussion: “The Gaza Strip, part of Israel’s Seven Front War series,” with Daniel Pipes, MEF president https://www.eventbrite.com/e/mef-aju-present-israels-7-fronts-gaza

4 p.m. — Wilson Center Cold War International History Project virtual book discussion: To Run the World: The Kremlin’s Cold War Bid for Global Power, with author Sergey Radchenko, professor, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/run-world-kremlins-cold-war-bid-global-power

4 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Outcomes and Implications of the 2024 Solomon Islands Election,” with Alan Tidwell, director of Georgetown University Center for Australian, New Zealand, and Pacific Studies; Anouk Ride, Australian National University research fellow; Anna Powles, senior lecturer, University of New Zealand’s Center for Defense and Security Studies; and Tarcisius Kabutaulaka, associate professor, University of Hawaii, Manoa https://www.csis.org/events/outcomes-and-implications-2024-solomon-islands-election

TUESDAY | MAY 21

7:15 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Arlington, Virginia — Association of the U.S. Army discussion: “Linking resources to defense strategy and Army plans,” with Army Deputy chief of staff Lt. Gen. Karl Gingrich https://www.ausa.org/events/coffee-series/ltg-gingrich

8 a.m. 2520 Wasser Terr., Herndon, Virginia — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association Northern Virginia Chapter DOD Enterprise IT Day forum: “Harnessing Innovation for Combat Readiness.” with Pentagon Chief Information Officer John Sherman; Army Undersecretary Gabriel Camarillo; Navy Chief Information Officer Jane Rathbun; and Margaret Boatner, deputy assistant Army secretary for strategy and acquisition reform https://afceanova.swoogo.com/DODEnterpriseITDay2024

9:30 a.m. 222 Russell — Senate Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee hearing: “Defense Department Space Activities in Review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2025 and the Future Years Defense Program,” with testimony from John Hill, deputy assistant secretary of defense for space and missile defense; Frank Calvelli, assistant Air Force secretary for space acquisition and integration; and Vice Chief of Space Operations Gen. Michael Guetlein http://www.armed-services.senate.gov

10 a.m. 192 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations Committee Defense Subcommittee hearing: “A Review of the President’s FY2025 Budget Request for the Army,” with testimony from Army Secretary Christine Wormuth and Army chief of staff Gen. Randy George http://appropriations.senate.gov

10 a.m. 7596 Colshire Dr., McLean, Virginia — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. and MITRE discussion: “Taiwan Dynamics in this Decisive Decade,” with retired Rear Adm. Mike Studeman, Mitre national security fellow and former commander of the Office of Naval Intelligence; Margaret Stromecki, lead of the Mitre National Security Sector’s Counter-PRC Cell; and Bonnie Glaser, director of the GMFUS Indo-Pacific https://www.gmfus.org/event/taiwan-dynamics-decisive-decade

10:30 a.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing: “American Diplomacy and Global Leadership: Review of the FY2025 State Department Budget Request,” with testimony from Secretary of State Antony Blinken http://foreign.senate.gov

10:30 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Schriever Spacepower Series with Lt Gen Philip Garrant, commander, Space Systems Command https://afa-org.zoom.us/webinar/register

11 a.m. — Asia Society Policy Institute virtual discussion: “Rapid Reactions to the Taiwan Presidential Inauguration,” with Simona Grano, senior fellow on Taiwan, Asia Society’s Center for China Analysis; Rorry Daniels, senior fellow, Asia Society’s Center for China Analysis; and Lyle Morris, senior fellow, Asia Society’s Center for China Analysis https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/events/rapid-reaction

12:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council conference: “The Washington NATO Summit: Ukraine and trans-Atlantic security.” https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/nato-summit

2:30 p.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs Subcommittee hearing: “A Review of the President’s FY2025 Budget Request for the U.S. Department of State,” with testimony from Secretary of State Antony Blinken http://appropriations.senate.gov

3 p.m. 1155 15th St. NW — Inter-American Dialogue discussion: “Chile’s Foreign Policy,” with Chilean Undersecretary of Foreign Relations Gloria de la Fuente https://www.thedialogue.org/events/chiles-foreign-policy-priorities

WEDNESDAY | MAY 22

8 a.m. 3111 Fairview Park Dr., Falls Church, Virginia — Potomac Officers Club 2024 5G Forum, with Kevin Mulvihill, acting deputy chief information officer for command, control, and communications in the Office of the Secretary of Defense https://potomacofficersclub.com/events/poc-2024-5g-forum

8:15 a.m. 2121 Crystal Dr. Arlington, Virginia — National Defense Industrial Association Integrated Precision Warfare Review conference: “National Defense Industrial Strategy, Balancing Capacity, and Capability: Challenges and Opportunities for the U.S. Industrial Base,” with Anthony Di Stasio, acting deputy assistant secretary of defense for industrial base policy https://www.ndia.org/events/2024/5/21/ipwr-24

9 a.m. 2172 Rayburn — House Foreign Affairs Committee markup of legislation to provide for congressional oversight of proposed changes to arms sales to Israel http://foreignaffairs.house.gov

10 a.m. 192 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations Energy and Water Development Subcommittee hearing: “A Review of the President’s FY2025 Budget Request for the U.S. Department of Energy, including the National Nuclear Security Administration,” with testimony from Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm and Jill Hruby, energy undersecretary for nuclear security and administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration http://appropriations.senate.gov

10 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: “How U.S. Forces are Readying for New Global Threats,” with Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr.; Michael Andersson, head of strategic affairs and international affairs at Saab; and Courtney Kube, NBC News national security and military correspondent https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/general-cq-brown-jr

10 a.m. 2359 Rayburn — House Appropriations State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs Subcommittee hearing: “FY2025 Request for the Department of State,” with testimony from Secretary of State Antony Blinken http://appropriations.house.gov

10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies in-person and virtual discussion: “The Next Generation of National Security Leaders: A Conversation with Maj. Gen. Arnold Punaro,” with retired Marine Maj. Gen. Arnold Punaro, former staff director, Senate Armed Service Committee; former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn, former Senate Armed Services Committee chairman; former Georgia Sen. Saxby Chambliss, former vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee; retired Gen. Jim Jones, former Marine Corps commandant, supreme allied commander, Europe, and national security adviser; and moderator Jennifer Griffin, chief national security correspondent, Fox News https://www.csis.org/events/next-generation-national-security-leaders

12 p.m. 14th and F Sts. NW — Friends of the Uniformed Services University discussion: “Imagining Combat Without Military Medicine: What Would That Look Like?” with retired Army Gen. Ronald Blanck, former Army surgeon general; former Army Maj. Gen. Jonathan Woodson, president of the Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences and former assistant secretary of defense for health affairs; Carol Romano, USUHS dean and president of the USUHS’s Daniel K. Inouye Graduate School of Nursing; retired Army Gen. Richard Thomas, associate vice president and dean of the West Virginia University School of Medicine’s Eastern Division and chief medical officer for WVU Medicine Berkeley and Jefferson medical centers; and retired Navy Command Master Sgt. Tyrone Willis, senior enlisted leader and a recruitment specialist, Uniformed Services University. RSVP [email protected] 

1:30 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW — Henry Stimson Center discussion: “The World’s Hotspots and Implications for the Future of the International Order,” with Kunihiko Miyake, president of the Foreign Policy Institute, and David Shear, senior fellow, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies’s Reischauer Center https://www.stimson.org/event/the-worlds-hotspots

1:30 p.m. — Wilson Center’s Global Europe Program virtual Winston Churchill Lecture to mark the 150th anniversary of the birth of Winston Churchill, with Nicholas Soames, grandson of former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/winston-churchill-lecture

2 p.m. 2172 Rayburn — House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing: “The State of American Diplomacy in 2024: Global Instability, Budget Challenges, and Great Power Competition,” with testimony from Secretary of State Antony Blinken http://foreignaffairs.house.gov

4 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “The Dangers of National Security Weakness,” with former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley https://www.hudson.org/events/nikki-haley

4:45 p.m. 222 Russell — Senate Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee hearing: “The Department of Energy’s Atomic Energy Defense Activities and Department of Defense Nuclear Weapons Programs in Review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2025 and the Future Years Defense Program,” with testimony from National Nuclear Security Administration Administrator Jill Hruby; William White, Energy Department senior adviser for environmental management; Navy Adm. William Houston, deputy administrator for the Office of Naval Reactors, National Nuclear Security Administration; Marvin Adams, deputy administrator for defense programs, National Nuclear Security Administration; Air Force Gen. Thomas Bussiere, commander of Air Force Global Strike Command; and Vice Adm. Johnny Wolfe, director for strategic systems programs in the Department of the Navy http://www.armed-services.senate.gov